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Many problems in machine learning and statistics involve nested expectations and thus do not permit conventional Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. For such problems, one must nest estimators, such that terms in an outer estimator themselves…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-24 Tom Rainforth , Robert Cornish , Hongseok Yang , Andrew Warrington , Frank Wood

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo technique for efficiently estimating the likelihood of rare events by biasing the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By drawing weighted samples from a learned proposal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Liam A. Kruse , Marc R. Schlichting , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Dale Schuurmans , Finnegan Southey

In this article, we present a review of the recent developments on the topic of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm, in the paradigm of applications in financial engineering. We specifically focus on the recent studies conducted in two…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-30 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-25 Brendan Tracey , David Wolpert , Juan J. Alonso

Monte-Carlo simulations are routinely used for estimating the scaling exponents of complex systems. However, due to finite-size effects, determining the exponent values is often difficult and not reliable. Here we present a novel technique…

Computational Physics · Physics 2008-04-14 Jaan Kalda

The Plackett-Luce (PL) model is ubiquitous in learning-to-rank (LTR) because it provides a useful and intuitive probabilistic model for sampling ranked lists. Counterfactual offline evaluation and optimization of ranking metrics are pivotal…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a prominent Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which employs symplectic integrators to sample from high dimensional target distributions in many applications, such as statistical mechanics, Bayesian statistics…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Geoffrey McGregor , Andy T. S. Wan

In the Monte Carlo (MC) method statistical noise is usually present. Statistical noise may become dominant in the calculation of a distribution, usually by iteration, but is less Important in calculating integrals. The subject of the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2013-11-08 Mihály Makai , Zoltán Szatmáry

SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) is a class of Monte Carlo algorithms for filtering and related sequential problems. Gerber and Chopin (2015) introduced SQMC (Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo), a QMC version of SMC. This paper has two objectives:…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-19 Nicolas Chopin , Mathieu Gerber

Multi-dimensional classification (MDC) is the supervised learning problem where an instance is associated with multiple classes, rather than with a single class, as in traditional classification problems. Since these classes are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-20 Jesse Read , Luca Martino , David Luengo

Computational tools for characterizing electromagnetic scattering from objects with uncertain shapes are needed in various applications ranging from remote sensing at microwave frequencies to Raman spectroscopy at optical frequencies.…

Monte Carlo matrix trace estimation is a popular randomized technique to estimate the trace of implicitly-defined matrices via averaging quadratic forms across several observations of a random vector. The most common approach to analyze the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Lior Horesh , Vasileios Kalantzis , Yingdong Lu , Tomasz Nowicki

We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-27 Roberto Fontana , Francesca Romana Crucinio

We present a unified theory of the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) and determinant quantum Monte Carlo (DQMC) methods using a novel density matrix formulation of VMC. We introduce an efficient algorithm for VMC to compute correlation…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2018-10-02 Mohammad-Sadegh Vaezi , Abolhassan Vaezi

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-30 Luigi Acerbi

In the context of Bayesian inversion for scientific and engineering modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies are the benchmark due to their flexibility and robustness in dealing with arbitrary posterior probability density…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-07 Han Lu , Mohammad Khalil , Thomas Catanach , Jiefu Chen , Xuqing Wu , Xin Fu , Cosmin Safta , Yueqin Huang

We study an optimal control problem under uncertainty, where the target function is the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation with random coefficients, steered by a control function. The robust formulation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Philipp A. Guth , Vesa Kaarnioja , Frances Y. Kuo , Claudia Schillings , Ian H. Sloan

We present a preconditioned Monte Carlo method for computing high-dimensional multivariate normal and Student-$t$ probabilities arising in spatial statistics. The approach combines a tile-low-rank representation of covariance matrices with…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-26 Jian Cao , Marc G. Genton , David E. Keyes , George M. Turkiyyah

We study signal processing tasks in which the signal is mapped via some generalized time-frequency transform to a higher dimensional time-frequency space, processed there, and synthesized to an output signal. We show how to approximate such…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-09-07 Ron Levie , Haim Avron , Gitta Kutyniok