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Irreversible and rejection-free Monte Carlo methods, recently developed in Physics under the name Event-Chain and known in Statistics as Piecewise Deterministic Monte Carlo (PDMC), have proven to produce clear acceleration over standard…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-28 Manon Michel , Alain Durmus , Stéphane Sénécal

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert

The particle filter (PF), also known as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), approximates high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants in the discrete-time setting. To reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jianfeng Lu , Yuliang Wang

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Zhijian He , Shifeng Huo , Tianhui Yang

While multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations with random coefficients enjoy great popularity, combinations with spatial adaptivity seem to be rare. We present an adaptive MLMC…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-20 Ralf Kornhuber , Evgenia Youett

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-20 Junshan Wang , Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio

Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-13 Richard G. Everitt , Dennis Prangle , Philip Maybank , Mark Bell

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Youssef Marzouk , Yan Zhou

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain algorithm for sampling from a high-dimensional distribution with density $e^{-f(x)}$, given access to the gradient of $f$. A particular case of interest is that of a $d$-dimensional Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-27 Simon Apers , Sander Gribling , Dániel Szilágyi

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is arguably the most efficient sampling method for general probability distributions of continuous variables. Together with exact Fourier acceleration (EFA) the HMC becomes equivalent to direct…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2025-07-23 Johann Ostmeyer

Estimating Monte Carlo error is critical to valid simulation results in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and initial sequence estimators were one of the first methods introduced for this. Over the last few years, focus has been on…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-08 Arka Banerjee , Dootika Vats

This work introduces a novel multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) metamodeling approach for variance function estimation. Although devising an efficient experimental design for simulation metamodeling can be elusive, the MLMC-based approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Jingtao Zhang , Xi Chen

We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-12 Matthias C. M. Troffaes

Monte Carlo method is a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. They are often used in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or…

Computation · Statistics 2018-09-28 Bochao Jia

We develop a pure Monte Carlo method to compute $E(g(X_T))$ where $g$ is a bounded and Lipschitz function and $X_t$ an Ito process. This approach extends a previously proposed method to the general multidimensional case with a SDE with…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-18 Mahamadou Doumbia , Nadia Oudjane , Xavier Warin

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

When combined with highly expressive ansatz functions such as neural quantum states, variational Monte Carlo (VMC) constitutes a versatile numerical approach to tackle the quantum many-body problem in and out of equilibrium. However, its…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-05-06 Wladislaw Krinitsin , Markus Schmitt