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A hockey player's plus-minus measures the difference between goals scored by and against that player's team while the player was on the ice. This measures only a marginal effect, failing to account for the influence of the others he is…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-27 Robert B. Gramacy , Matt Taddy , Sen Tian

Ubiquitous sensors and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies have revolutionized the sports industry, providing new methodologies for planning, effective coordination of training, and match analysis post game. New methods, including machine…

A knowledgeable observer of a game of football (soccer) can make a subjective evaluation of the quality of passes made between players during the game. We investigate the problem of producing an automated system to make the same evaluation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-22 Michael Horton , Joachim Gudmundsson , Sanjay Chawla , Joël Estephan

We investigated the temporal distribution of goals in soccer using event-level data from 3,433 matches across 21 leagues and competitions. Contrary to the prevailing notion of randomness, we found that the probability of a goal being scored…

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-03-07 Lei Le , Emilio Ferrara , Alessandro Flammini

Ranking and scoring are ubiquitous. We consider the setting in which an institution, called a ranker, evaluates a set of individuals based on demographic, behavioral or other characteristics. The final output is a ranking that represents…

Databases · Computer Science 2016-10-28 Ke Yang , Julia Stoyanovich

We use the fertile ground of betting markets to study the anticipation of major news in financial markets. While there is a considerable body of literature on the accuracy and efficiency of betting markets after important in-match events,…

General Economics · Economics 2025-05-28 David Winkelmann , Christian Deutscher

Ranking individuals based on their performance in different coalitions is a problem emerging in various domains (teams sports, scientific evaluation, argumentation, etc.). Often, for practical reasons, the number of comparable coalitions is…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-19 Takahiro Suzuki , Michele Aleandri , Stefano Moretti

This study proposes a statistically grounded framework for real-time win probability evaluation and player assessment in score-based team sports, based on minute-by-minute cumulative box-score data. We introduce a continuous dominance…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yasutaka Shimizu , Atsushi Yamanobe

Analysis of the popular expected goals (xG) metric in soccer has determined that a (slightly) smaller number of high-quality attempts will likely yield more goals than a slew of low-quality ones. This observation has driven a change in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-02-17 Maaike Van Roy , Pieter Robberechts , Wen-Chi Yang , Luc De Raedt , Jesse Davis

Sports analytics -- broadly defined as the pursuit of improvement in athletic performance through the analysis of data -- has expanded its footprint both in the professional sports industry and in academia over the past 30 years. In this…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-11 Benjamin S. Baumer , Gregory J. Matthews , Quang Nguyen

This paper presents a novel approach to analyze human decision-making that involves comparing the behavior of professional chess players relative to a computational benchmark of cognitively bounded rationality. This benchmark is constructed…

General Economics · Economics 2020-12-03 Dainis Zegners , Uwe Sunde , Anthony Strittmatter

In this article we revise the football's performance score called PlayeRank, designed and evaluated by Pappalardo et al.\ in 2019. First, we analyze the weights extracted from the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) that solves the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Louise Schmidt , Cristian Lillo , Javier Bustos

The expected goal models have gained popularity, but their interpretability is often limited, especially when trained using black-box methods. Explainable artificial intelligence tools have emerged to enhance model transparency and extract…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-31 Mustafa Cavus , Adrian Stando , Przemyslaw Biecek

A good prediction is very important for scientific, economic, and administrative purposes. It is therefore necessary to know whether a predictor is skillful enough to predict the future. Given the increased reliance on predictions in…

General Economics · Economics 2022-09-13 Thitithep Sitthiyot , Kanyarat Holasut

Soccer is undeniably the most popular sport world-wide and everyone from general managers and coaching staff to fans and media are interested in evaluating players' performance. Metrics applied successfully in other sports, such as the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-04 Konstantinos Pelechrinis , Wayne Winston

A key trait of stochastic optimizers is that multiple runs of the same optimizer in attempting to solve the same problem can produce different results. As a result, their performance is evaluated over several repeats, or runs, on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Moslem Noori , Elisabetta Valiante , Thomas Van Vaerenbergh , Masoud Mohseni , Ignacio Rozada

In the pursuit of natural language understanding, there has been a long standing interest in tracking state changes throughout narratives. Impressive progress has been made in modeling the state of transaction-centric dialogues and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-04 Ruochen Zhang , Carsten Eickhoff

In most sports, especially football, most coaches and analysts search for key performance indicators using notational analysis. This method utilizes a statistical summary of events based on video footage and numerical records of goal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Chenyao Li , Stylianos Kampakis , Philip Treleaven

Stochastic optimization algorithms have been successfully applied in several domains to find optimal solutions. Because of the ever-growing complexity of the integrated systems, novel stochastic algorithms are being proposed, which makes…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Sowmya Chandrasekaran , Thomas Bartz-Beielstein
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