Related papers: A 1000-fold Acceleration of Hidden Markov Model Fi…

We consider two-state Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHHMMs) for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state dependent coefficients and time-varying…

We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a…

Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or…

This paper presents a new and flexible prognostics framework based on a higher order hidden semi-Markov model (HOHSMM) for systems or components with unobservable health states and complex transition dynamics. The HOHSMM extends the basic…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide useful tools for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing the topology of environments such as road networks…

Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used statistical models for modeling sequential data. The parameter estimation for HMMs from time series data is an important learning problem. The predominant methods for parameter estimation are…

It is of some interest to understand how statistically based mechanisms for signal processing might be integrated with biologically motivated mechanisms such as neural networks. This paper explores a novel hybrid approach for classifying…

Automated fault localization is an important issue in model validation and verification. It helps the end users in analyzing the origin of failure. In this work, we show the early experiments with probabilistic analysis approaches in fault…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…

Quantum graphical models (QGMs) extend the classical framework for reasoning about uncertainty by incorporating the quantum mechanical view of probability. Prior work on QGMs has focused on hidden quantum Markov models (HQMMs), which can be…

We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs (or observations) in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMM), where both the uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its…

Standard practice in Hidden Markov Model (HMM) selection favors the candidate with the highest full-sequence likelihood, although this is equivalent to making a decision based on a single realization. We introduce a \emph{fragment-based}…

We consider penalized estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) with multivariate Normal observations. In the moderate-to-large dimensional setting, estimation for HMMs remains challenging in practice, due to several concerns arising from…

Isolated sign recognition from video streams is a challenging problem due to the multi-modal nature of the signs, where both local and global hand features and face gestures needs to be attended simultaneously. This problem has recently…

Genetic sequence data are well described by hidden Markov models (HMMs) in which latent states correspond to clusters of similar mutation patterns. Theory from statistical genetics suggests that these HMMs are nonhomogeneous (their…

In this paper, we propose circular Hidden Quantum Markov Models (c-HQMMs), which can be applied for modeling temporal data in quantum datasets (with classical datasets as a special case). We show that c-HQMMs are equivalent to a constrained…

This paper discusses the potential of graphics processing units (GPUs) in high-dimensional optimization problems. A single GPU card with hundreds of arithmetic cores can be inserted in a personal computer and dramatically accelerates many…

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM)…

We show how models for prediction with expert advice can be defined concisely and clearly using hidden Markov models (HMMs); standard HMM algorithms can then be used to efficiently calculate, among other things, how the expert predictions…