Related papers: Excess deaths and Hurricane Mar\'ia
In previous work, we have shown how to combine long and short historical baselines to make predictions of future hurricane numbers. We now ask: how should such combinations change if we are interested in predicting the future number of…
We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal…
This paper studies natural disasters and the psychological costs of climate change. It presents what we believe to be the first evidence that higher temperature variability and not a higher level of temperature is what predicts natural…
Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- and region-specific seasonal effects and penalized distributed…
Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…
Florida is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes, which frequently cause substantial economic losses. While prior studies have explored specific contributors to hurricane-induced damage, few have developed a unified framework capable of…
The objective of this paper is to employ machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to obtain from input data (storm features) available in or derived from the HURDAT2 database models capable of simulating important hurricane…
Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively,…
The near universal references to the above paper by most of the major US media outlets and blogs since Katrina and Rita made US landfall requires a response from a few of us who study hurricanes. Having been involved with hurricane research…
Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…
Hurricane Leslie (2018) was a non-tropical system that lasted for a long time undergoing several transitions between tropical and extratropical states. Its trajectory was highly uncertain and difficult to predict. Here the extratropical…
The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…
We calculate the present-day impact flux on Mars and its variation over the Martian year, using the current data on the orbital distribution of known Mars-crossing minor planets. We adapt the {\"O}pik-Wetherill formulation for calculating…
This study presents a framework for assessing urban critical infrastructure resilience during extreme events, such as hurricanes. The approach combines GIS and network analysis with open remote sensing data of the aftermath, vector data on…
Understanding the underlying causes of maternal death across all regions of the world is essential to inform policies and resource allocation to reduce the mortality burden. However, in many countries there exists very little data on the…
We explore hurricane and ocean reanalysis data to understand how rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones is impacted by the upper ocean density structure, with an emphasis on barrier layer (BL) thickness and thermocline depth in the…
In our previous article, we estimated excess mortality during in Aotearoa New Zealand for 2020 to 2023. Since our work was published, updated population estimates have been released by Statistics NZ. In this short letter, we provide the…
Flooding is one of the most disruptive and costliest climate-related disasters and presents an escalating threat to population health due to climate change and urbanization patterns. Previous studies have investigated the consequences of…
It is estimated that over one-fourth of US households experienced a power outage in 2023, costing on average US $\$150$ Bn annually, with $87\%$ of outages caused by natural hazards. Indeed, numerous studies have examined the macroeconomic…
During an epidemic outbreak of a new disease, the probability of dying once infected is considered an important though difficult task to be computed. Since it is very hard to know the true number of infected people, the focus is placed on…