Related papers: Excess deaths and Hurricane Mar\'ia
Patient status, angiographic and procedural characteristics encode crucial signals for predicting long-term outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The aim of the study was to develop a predictive model for assessing the…
Disasters often impact supply chains, leading to cascading effects across regions. While unaffected regions may attempt to compensate, their ability is constrained by their available production capacity and logistical constraints between…
Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…
The radius of maximum wind ($R_{max}$) in a hurricane governs the footprint of hazards, particularly damaging wind and rainfall. However, $R_{max}$ is noisy to observe directly and is poorly resolved in reanalyses and climate models. In…
The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…
We offer evidence that federal emergency assistance (FEMA) in the days following natural disasters mitigate evictions in comparison to similar emergency scenarios where FEMA aid is not provided. We find an approximate 10.9% increase in…
Travel patterns can be impacted by abnormal events. Assessing the impacts has important implications for relief operations and improving preparedness or planning for future events. Conventionally, the assessment is done followed by data…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
Substance overdose mortality in the United States claimed over 80,000 lives in 2023, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating existing trends through healthcare disruptions and behavioral changes. Estimating excess mortality, defined as…
Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…
A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…
We consider the task of assessing the righthand tail of an insurer's loss distribution for some specified period, such as a year. We present and analyse six different approaches: four upper bounds, and two approximations. We examine these…
The return of normalcy to the population's lifestyle is a critical recovery milestone in the aftermath of disasters, and delayed lifestyle recovery could lead to significant well-being impacts. Lifestyle recovery captures the collective…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
Hurricanes are costly natural disasters periodically faced by households in coastal and to some extent, inland areas. A detailed understanding of evacuation behavior is fundamental to the development of efficient emergency plans. Once a…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
Examining the impact of disasters on life activities of populations is critical for understanding community resilience dynamics, yet it remains insufficiently studied in the existing literature. In this study, we leveraged data from more…
Flooding due to Hurricane Florence led to billions of dollars in damage and nearly a hundred deaths in North Carolina. These damages and fatalities can be avoided with proper prevention and preparation. Modelling such flooding events can…
Aggregated health data such as claims data from health insurances become more and more available for research purposes. Estimates of excess mortality from prevalence and incidence of a chronic condition have only been possible for ages 50…
In light of intense hurricane activity along the U.S. Atlantic coast, attention has turned to understanding both the economic impact and behaviour of these storms. The compound Poisson-lognormal process has been proposed as a model for…