Related papers: Predicting Stock Returns with Batched AROW
We provide a unifying approximate dynamic programming framework that applies to a broad variety of problems involving sequential estimation. We consider first the construction of surrogate cost functions for the purposes of optimization,…
We study conditional risk minimization (CRM), i.e. the problem of learning a hypothesis of minimal risk for prediction at the next step of sequentially arriving dependent data. Despite it being a fundamental problem, successful learning in…
Predicting the near-future delay with accuracy for trains is momentous for railway operations and passengers' traveling experience. This work aims to design prediction models for train delays based on Netherlands Railway data. We first…
The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…
Modeling the behavior of stock price data has always been one of the challengeous applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) due to its high complexity and dependence on various conditions. Recent studies show…
In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…
Branch misprediction latency is one of the most important contributors to performance degradation and wasted energy consumption in a modern core. State-of-the-art predictors generally perform very well but occasionally suffer from high…
We propose an efficient retraining strategy for a parameterized Reduced Order Model (ROM) that attains accuracy comparable to full retraining while requiring only a fraction of the computational time and relying solely on sparse…
Rolling forecasts have been almost overlooked in the renewable energy storage literature. In this paper, we provide a new approach for handling uncertainty not just in the accuracy of a forecast, but in the evolution of forecasts over time.…
Algorithms for learning distributions over weight-vectors, such as AROW were recently shown empirically to achieve state-of-the-art performance at various problems, with strong theoretical guaranties. Extending these algorithms to matrix…
Stock exchanges are considered major players in financial sectors of many countries. Most Stockbrokers, who execute stock trade, use technical, fundamental or time series analysis in trying to predict stock prices, so as to advise clients.…
We propose a discrete-time econometric model that combines autoregressive filters with factor regressions to predict stock returns for portfolio optimisation purposes. In particular, we test both robust linear regressions and general…
In this paper, we consider a deterministic online linear regression model where we allow the responses to be multivariate. To address this problem, we introduce MultiVAW, a method that extends the well-known Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth algorithm to…
While automatic speech recognition (ASR) greatly benefits from data augmentation, the augmentation recipes themselves tend to be heuristic. In this paper, we address one of the heuristic approach associated with balancing the right amount…
In recent years, machine learning (ML) has brought effective approaches and novel techniques to economic decision, investment forecasting, and risk management, etc., coping the variable and intricate nature of economic and financial…
With an ever-increasing share of intermittent renewable energy in the world's energy mix,there is an increasing need for advanced solar power forecasting models to optimize the operation and control of solar power plants. In order to…
Many businesses and industries require accurate forecasts for weekly time series nowadays. However, the forecasting literature does not currently provide easy-to-use, automatic, reproducible and accurate approaches dedicated to this task.…
Monitoring downside risk and upside risk to the key macroeconomic indicators is critical for effective policymaking aimed at maintaining economic stability. In this paper I propose a parametric framework for modelling and forecasting…
Certain classes of CUR algorithms, also referred to as cross or pseudoskeleton algorithms, are widely used for low-rank matrix approximation when direct access to all matrix entries is costly. Their key advantage lies in constructing a…