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Related papers: Limit theorems for a discrete-time Hawkes process

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This paper develops a theoretical mesoscopic model of the limit order book driven by multivariate Hawkes processes, designed to capture temporal self-excitation and the spatial propagation of order flow across price levels. In contrast to…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-25 Levon Mahseredjian

The rapid growth of social media has been witnessed during recent years as a result of the prevalence of the internet. This trend brings an increasing interest in simulating social media which can provide valuable insights to both academic…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Ao Qu , Ismael Lemhadri

In this paper we develop the first perfect sampling algorithm for queues with Hawkes input, i.e. single-server queues with Hawkes arrivals and i.i.d. service times of general distribution. In addition to the stability condition, we also…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-03 Xinyun Chen

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Reading is a process that unfolds across space and time, alternating between fixations where a reader focuses on a specific point in space, and saccades where a reader rapidly shifts their focus to a new point. An ansatz of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Francesco Ignazio Re , Andreas Opedal , Glib Manaiev , Mario Giulianelli , Ryan Cotterell

Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Alexander Soen , Shidi Li , Pio Calderon , Leanne Dong , Aditya Krishna Menon , Lexing Xie

We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Xenia Miscouridou , François Caron , Yee Whye Teh

Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Renbo Zhao , Niccolò Dalmasso , Mohsen Ghassemi , Vamsi K. Potluru , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

The discrete-time Hawkes process (DTHP) is a sub-class of $g$-functions that serves as a discrete-time version of the continuous-time Hawkes process (CTHP). Like the CTHP, the DTHP also has the self-exciting property and its intensity…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

We determine the large size limit of a network of interacting Hawkes Processes on an adaptive network. The flipping of the node variables is taken to have an intensity given by the mean-field of the afferent edges and nodes. The flipping of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-15 James MacLaurin

The extent to which a matching engine can cloud the modelling of underlying order submission and management processes in a financial market remains an unanswered concern with regards to market models. Here we consider a 10-variate Hawkes…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-18 Ivan Jericevich , Patrick Chang , Tim Gebbie

We study by computer simulation the "Hawkes process" that was proposed in a recent paper by Crane and Sornette (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 15649 (2008)) as a plausible model for the dynamics of YouTube video viewing numbers. We test the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2010-01-05 Lawrence Mitchell , Michael E. Cates

We give a general Gaussian bound for the first chaos (or innovation) of point processes with stochastic intensity constructed by embedding in a bivariate Poisson process. We apply the general result to nonlinear Hawkes processes, providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Giovanni Luca Torrisi

We propose a novel modeling framework for time-evolving networks allowing for long-term dependence in network features that update in continuous time. Dynamic network growth is functionally parameterized via the conditional intensity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Duncan A Clark , Conor J. Kresin , Charlotte M. Jones-Todd

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Chenghao Yang , Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Luca Mucciante , Alessio Sancetta

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

The bifurcation theory of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and its application to deterministic population models, are by now well established. In this article, we begin to develop a complementary theory for diffusion-like…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-01-22 Eric Foxall

We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-28 Simon Clinet , Yoann Potiron

As a tool for capturing irregular temporal dependencies (rather than resorting to binning temporal observations to construct time series), Hawkes processes with exponential decay have seen widespread adoption across many application…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Tiago Santos , Florian Lemmerich , Denis Helic
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