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In this paper, we consider supervised learning problems such as logistic regression and study the stochastic gradient method with averaging, in the usual stochastic approximation setting where observations are used only once. We show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-18 Francis Bach

Machine learning (ML) methods are highly flexible, but their ability to approximate the true data-generating process is fundamentally constrained by finite samples. We characterize a universal lower bound, the Limits-to-Learning Gap (LLG),…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-16 Zhimin Chen , Bryan Kelly , Semyon Malamud

Tuning parameters are parameters involved in an estimating procedure for the purpose of reducing the risk of some other estimator. Examples include the degree of penalization in penalized regression and likelihood problems, as well as the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Ingrid Dæhlen , Nils Lid Hjort , Ingrid Hobæk Haff

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Adam Fisch , Lihua Lei , Tal Schuster

Logistic regression is an important statistical tool for assessing the probability of an outcome based upon some predictive variables. Standard methods can only deal with precisely known data, however many datasets have uncertainties which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-09 Nicholas Gray , Scott Ferson

Nowadays, several data analysis problems require for complexity reduction, mainly meaning that they target at removing the non-influential covariates from the model and at delivering a sparse model. When categorical covariates are present,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-21 Lea Kaufmann , Maria Kateri

We construct an objective function that consists of a quadratic approximation term and a penalty term. Thanks to the quadratic approximation, we can deal with various kinds of loss functions into a unified way, and by taking advantage of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-26 Takumi Suzuki , Nakahiro Yoshida

This paper is a survey of recent results on the adaptive robust non parametric methods for the continuous time regression model with the semi - martingale noises with jumps. The noises are modeled by the L\'evy processes, the Ornstein --…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Serguei Pergamenshchikov

In the regression setting, given a set of hyper-parameters, a model-estimation procedure constructs a model from training data. The optimal hyper-parameters that minimize generalization error of the model are usually unknown. In practice…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Jean Feng , Noah Simon

This paper presents a general theoretical framework of penalized quasi-maximum likelihood (PQML) estimation in stationary multiple time series models when the number of parameters possibly diverges. We show the oracle property of the PQML…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-28 Yoshimasa Uematsu

Relational logistic regression (RLR) is a representation of conditional probability in terms of weighted formulae for modelling multi-relational data. In this paper, we develop a learning algorithm for RLR models. Learning an RLR model from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-29 Bahare Fatemi , Seyed Mehran Kazemi , David Poole

In a general counting process setting, we consider the problem of obtaining a prognostic on the survival time adjusted on covariates in high-dimension. Towards this end, we construct an estimator of the whole conditional intensity. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-15 Sarah Lemler

We propose a penalized likelihood method that simultaneously fits the multinomial logistic regression model and combines subsets of the response categories. The penalty is non differentiable when pairs of columns in the optimization…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-11 Bradley S. Price , Charles J. Geyer , Adam J. Rothman

We study the high-dimensional linear model with noise distribution known up to a scale parameter. With an $\ell_1$-penalty on the regression coefficients, we show that a transformation of the log-likelihood allows for a choice of the tuning…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Sara van de Geer , Sylvain Sardy , Maximę van Cutsem

This paper proposes a new integrated variance estimator based on order statistics within the framework of jump-diffusion models. Its ability to disentangle the integrated variance from the total process quadratic variation is confirmed by…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-23 Luca Spadafora , Francesca Sivero , Nicola Picchiotti

We investigate high-dimensional nonconvex penalized regression, where the number of covariates may grow at an exponential rate. Although recent asymptotic theory established that there exists a local minimum possessing the oracle property…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Lan Wang , Yongdai Kim , Runze Li

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum

When randomized ensembles such as bagging or random forests are used for binary classification, the prediction error of the ensemble tends to decrease and stabilize as the number of classifiers increases. However, the precise relationship…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Miles E. Lopes

In the framework of nonparametric multivariate function estimation we are interested in structural adaptation. We assume that the function to be estimated has the "single-index" structure where neither the link function nor the index vector…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-30 Oleg Lepski , Nora Serdyukova

The problem of finding the maximum likelihood estimates for the regression coefficients in generalised linear models with an L1 sparsity penalty is shown to be equivalent to minimising the unpenalised maximum log-likelihood function over a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-21 Tom Michoel