Related papers: Model error covariance estimation in particle and …

This paper proposes two practical implementations of Four-Dimensional Variational (4D-Var) Ensemble Kalman Filter (4D-EnKF) methods for non-linear data assimilation. Our formulations' main idea is to avoid the intrinsic need for adjoint…

Several variations of the Kalman filter algorithm, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), are widely used in science and engineering applications. In this paper, we introduce two algorithms of…

Data assimilation (DA) aims at forecasting the state of a dynamical system by combining a mathematical representation of the system with noisy observations taking into account their uncertainties. State of the art methods are based on the…

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm (Dempster, Laird and Rubin, 1977) is a popular method for computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) in problems with missing data. Each iteration of the al- gorithm formally consists of an…

Providing a metric of uncertainty alongside a state estimate is often crucial when tracking a dynamical system. Classic state estimators, such as the Kalman filter (KF), provide a time-dependent uncertainty measure from knowledge of the…

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a well-known iterative method for computing maximum likelihood estimates from incomplete data. Despite its numerous advantages, a main drawback of the EM algorithm is its frequently observed…

High-fidelity simulations are essential for predicting material behavior under high-velocity impact (HVI), but their accuracy depends on material models and parameters that are often calibrated by manual fitting to multiple costly…

Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging…

This paper tackles the intricate task of jointly estimating state and parameters in data assimilation for stochastic dynamical systems that are affected by noise and observed only partially. While the concept of ``optimal filtering'' serves…

We consider the problem of selecting an optimal set of sensor precisions to estimate the states of a non-linear dynamical system using an Ensemble Kalman filter and an Unscented Kalman filter, which uses random and deterministic ensembles…

(Neal and Hinton, 1998) recast maximum likelihood estimation of any given latent variable model as the minimization of a free energy functional $F$, and the EM algorithm as coordinate descent applied to $F$. Here, we explore alternative…

We analyze the Ensemble and Polynomial Chaos Kalman filters applied to nonlinear stationary Bayesian inverse problems. In a sequential data assimilation setting such stationary problems arise in each step of either filter. We give a new…

In this paper we address the problem of estimating the posterior distribution of the static parameters of a continuous time state space model with discrete time observations by an algorithm that combines the Kalman filter and a particle…

A new type of ensemble Kalman filter is developed, which is based on replacing the sample covariance in the analysis step by its diagonal in a spectral basis. It is proved that this technique improves the aproximation of the covariance when…

For continuous-time linear stochastic dynamical systems driven by Wiener processes, we consider the problem of designing ensemble filters when the observation process is randomly time-sampled. We propose a continuous-discrete McKean--Vlasov…

In this paper, we investigate a distributed estimation problem for multi-agent systems with state equality constraints (SEC). First, under a time-based consensus communication protocol, applying a modified projection operator and the…

Complex systems are often described with competing models. Such divergence of interpretation on the system may stem from model fidelity, mathematical simplicity, and more generally, our limited knowledge of the underlying processes.…

We consider the Ensemble Kalman Inversion which has been recently introduced as an efficient, gradient-free optimisation method to estimate unknown parameters in an inverse setting. In the case of large data sets, the Ensemble Kalman…

Decision making often occurs in the presence of incomplete information, leading to the under- or overestimation of risk. Leveraging the observable information to learn the complete information is called nowcasting. In practice, incomplete…

This paper re-examines the problem of parameter estimation in Bayesian networks with missing values and hidden variables from the perspective of recent work in on-line learning [Kivinen & Warmuth, 1994]. We provide a unified framework for…