English
Related papers

Related papers: Model error covariance estimation in particle and …

200 papers

Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state of the system is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-30 Omar Al Ghattas , Jiajun Bao , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Reduced-order models based on level-set methods are widely used tools to qualitatively capture and track the nonlinear dynamics of an interface. The aim of this paper is to develop a physics-informed, data-driven, statistically rigorous…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-20 Hans Yu , Matthew P. Juniper , Luca Magri

Modern autonomous systems are purposed for many challenging scenarios, where agents will face unexpected events and complicated tasks. The presence of disturbance noise with control command and unknown inputs can negatively impact robot…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-09-22 Zida Wu , Zhaoliang Zheng , Ankur Mehta

Standard methods of data assimilation assume prior knowledge of a model that describes the system dynamics and an observation function that maps the model state to a predicted output. An accurate mapping from model state to observation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Franz Hamilton , Tyrus Berry , Timothy Sauer

In this paper, the Ensemble Kalman Filter is compared with a 4DVAR Data Assimilation System in chaotic dynamics. The Lorenz model is chosen for its simplicity in structure and its dynamical similarities with primitive equation models, such…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-13 Fabrício Pereira Harter , Cleber Souza Corrêa

A hybrid data assimilation algorithm is developed for complex dynamical systems with partial observations. The method starts with applying a spectral decomposition to the entire spatiotemporal fields, followed by creating a machine learning…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-12-27 Changhong Mou , Leslie M. Smith , Nan Chen

We provide a general theory of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring high dimensional latent variable models. In particular, we make two contributions: (i) For parameter estimation, we propose a novel high dimensional EM…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-01-28 Zhaoran Wang , Quanquan Gu , Yang Ning , Han Liu

Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. The associated sensitivity to initial conditions is a significant obstacle in forecasting the weather and other geophysical fluid flows. Data assimilation is the process whereby the uncertainty in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-11-03 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Jonathan Demaeyer , Colin Grudzien , Patrick Raanes , Stephane Vannitsem

The filtering distribution captures the statistics of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. Classical particle filters provably approximate this distribution in quite general settings; however they behave…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Edoardo Calvello , Pierre Monmarché , Andrew M. Stuart , Urbain Vaes

Practical data assimilation algorithms often contain hyper-parameters, which may arise due to, for instance, the use of certain auxiliary techniques like covariance inflation and localization in an ensemble Kalman filter, the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-08 Xiaodong Luo , Chuan-An Xia

This paper addresses the estimation of parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. The task is usually tackled by running the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm several times in order to obtain a high log-likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Giorgio Corani , Cassio P. De Campos

In the process of reproducing the state dynamics of parameter dependent distributed systems, data from physical measurements can be incorporated into the mathematical model to reduce the parameter uncertainty and, consequently, improve the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-06 Francesco A. B. Silva , Cecilia Pagliantini , Martin Grepl , Karen Veroy

Vehicle state estimation presents a fundamental challenge for autonomous driving systems, requiring both physical interpretability and the ability to capture complex nonlinear behaviors across diverse operating conditions. Traditional…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-17 Farid Mafi , Ladan Khoshnevisan , Mohammad Pirani , Amir Khajepour

Data assimilation combines forecasts from a numerical model with observations. Most of the current data assimilation algorithms consider the model and observation error terms as additive Gaussian noise, specified by their covariance…

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather prediction research is growing rapidly and has shown to be competitive with the advanced dynamic numerical weather prediction models. However, research combining AI-based weather prediction models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Shunji Kotsuki , Kenta Shiraishi , Atsushi Okazaki

Using a dynamical model to make predictions about a system has many sources of error. These can include errors in how the model was initialised but also errors in the dynamics of the model itself. For many applications in data assimilation,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-07 P. A. Browne

In this contribution, we propose a generic online (also sometimes called adaptive or recursive) version of the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm applicable to latent variable models of independent observations. Compared to the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-02 Olivier Cappé , Eric Moulines

Data assimilation techniques are widely used to predict complex dynamical systems with uncertainties, based on time-series observation data. Error covariance matrices modelling is an important element in data assimilation algorithms which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-15 Sibo Cheng , Mingming Qiu

Online variants of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm have recently been proposed to perform parameter inference with large data sets or data streams, in independent latent models and in hidden Markov models. Nevertheless, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-01 Sylvain Le Corff , Gersende Fort

This paper studies the distributed state estimation problem for a class of discrete-time stochastic systems with nonlinear uncertain dynamics over time-varying topologies of sensor networks. An extended state vector consisting of the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-09-12 Xingkang He , Xiaocheng Zhang , Wenchao Xue , Haitao Fang