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We address an optimal stopping problem over the set of Bermudan-type strategies $\Theta$ (which we understand in a more general sense than the stopping strategies for Bermudan options in finance) and with non-linear operators (non-linear…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Miryana Grigorova , Marie-Claire Quenez , Peng Yuan

In this work, we use ML techniques to develop presumed PDF models for large eddy simulations of reacting flows. The joint sub-filter PDF of mixture fraction and progress variable is modeled using various ML algorithms and commonly used…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Marc T. Henry de Frahan , Shashank Yellapantula , Ryan King , Marc S. Day , Ray W. Grout

The aim of this paper is to propose a suitable method for constructing prediction intervals for the output of neural network models. To do this, we adapt the extremely randomized trees method originally developed for random forests to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-14 Tullio Mancini , Hector Calvo-Pardo , Jose Olmo

In this work we propose deep learning-based algorithms for the computation of systemic shortfall risk measures defined via multivariate utility functions. We discuss the key related theoretical aspects, with a particular focus on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Alessandro Doldi , Yichen Feng , Jean-Pierre Fouque , Marco Frittelli

We frame the meta-learning of prediction procedures as a search for an optimal strategy in a two-player game. In this game, Nature selects a prior over distributions that generate labeled data consisting of features and an associated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-29 Alex Luedtke , Incheoul Chung , Oleg Sofrygin

Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Björn Lütjens , Michael Everett , Jonathan P. How

Abstract This paper proposes a novel approach to Bermudan swaption hedging by applying the deep hedging framework to address limitations of traditional arbitrage-free methods. Conventional methods assume ideal conditions, such as zero…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-18 Kenjiro Oya

Portfolio Selection is an important real-world financial task and has attracted extensive attention in artificial intelligence communities. This task, however, has two main difficulties: (i) the non-stationary price series and complex asset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-09 Yifan Zhang , Peilin Zhao , Qingyao Wu , Bin Li , Junzhou Huang , Mingkui Tan

This study presents a deep reinforcement learning approach for global hedging of long-term financial derivatives. A similar setup as in Coleman et al. (2007) is considered with the risk management of lookback options embedded in guarantees…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-31 Alexandre Carbonneau

To the best of our knowledge, the application of deep learning in the field of quantitative risk management is still a relatively recent phenomenon. In this article, we utilize techniques inspired by reinforcement learning in order to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-08 Nicolas Curin , Michael Kettler , Xi Kleisinger-Yu , Vlatka Komaric , Thomas Krabichler , Josef Teichmann , Hanna Wutte

Models that employ latent variables to capture structure in observed data lie at the heart of many current unsupervised learning algorithms, but exact maximum-likelihood learning for powerful and flexible latent-variable models is almost…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-18 Li K. Wenliang , Theodore Moskovitz , Heishiro Kanagawa , Maneesh Sahani

During initial iterations of training in most Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms, agents perform a significant number of random exploratory steps. In the real world, this can limit the practicality of these algorithms as it can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-17 Ashish Kumar Jayant , Shalabh Bhatnagar

Nested Monte Carlo is widely used for risk estimation, but its efficiency is limited by the discontinuity of the indicator function and high computational cost. This paper proposes a nested Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Yu Xu , Xiaoqun Wang

We develop a new Monte Carlo variance reduction method to estimate the expectation of two commonly encountered path-dependent functionals: first-passage times and occupation times of sets. The method is based on a recursive approximation of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-28 Aleksandar Mijatovic , Martijn Pistorius , Johannes Stolte

This paper covers a massive acceleration of Monte-Carlo based pricing method for financial products and financial derivatives. The method is applicable in risk management settings, where a financial product has to be priced under a number…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-09-30 Stefan Dirnstorfer , Andreas J. Grau

To solve a machine learning problem, one typically needs to perform data preprocessing, modeling, and hyperparameter tuning, which is known as model selection and hyperparameter optimization.The goal of automated machine learning (AutoML)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-19 Weilin Zhou , Frederic Precioso

Safe navigation in uncertain environments requires planning methods that integrate risk aversion with active perception. In this work, we present a unified framework that refines a coarse reference path by constructing tail-sensitive risk…

In this work, we study the deep signature algorithms for path-dependent options. We extend the backward scheme in [Hur\'e-Pham-Warin. Mathematics of Computation 89, no. 324 (2020)] for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-17 Erhan Bayraktar , Qi Feng , Zhaoyu Zhang

An efficient compression technique based on hierarchical tensors for popular option pricing methods is presented. It is shown that the "curse of dimensionality" can be alleviated for the computation of Bermudan option prices with the Monte…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-09 Christian Bayer , Martin Eigel , Leon Sallandt , Philipp Trunschke

Deep learning is an effective approach to solving image recognition problems. People draw intuitive conclusions from trading charts; this study uses the characteristics of deep learning to train computers in imitating this kind of intuition…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2018-01-10 Yun-Cheng Tsai , Jun-Hao Chen , Jun-Jie Wang