Related papers: De Finetti's construction as a categorical limit
We present a novel proof of de Finetti's Theorem characterizing permutation-invariant probability measures of infinite sequences of variables, so-called exchangeable measures. The proof is phrased in the language of Markov categories, which…
De Finetti theorems tell us that if we expect the likelihood of outcomes to be independent of their order, then these sequences of outcomes could be equivalently generated by drawing an experiment at random from a distribution, and…
Probability theory can be studied synthetically as the computational effect embodied by a commutative monad. In the recently proposed Markov categories, one works with an abstraction of the Kleisli category and then defines deterministic…
For a class of random partitions of an infinite set a de Finetti-type representation is derived, and in one special case a central limit theorem for the number of blocks is shown.
We establish a connection between two results in the literature on probabilistic semantics: a formulation of De Finetti's theorem in the language of category theory due to Jacobs and Staton, and the generic construction of the free…
The Giry monad on the category of measurable spaces sends a space to a space of all probability measures on it. There is also a finitely additive Giry monad in which probability measures are replaced by finitely additive probability…
Exchangeability is a fundamental concept in probability theory and statistics. It allows to model situations where the order of observations does not matter. The classical de Finetti's theorem provides a representation of infinitely…
We extend de Finetti's (1937) notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than (linear) previsions. We prove…
We extend de Finetti's [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} 7 (1937) 1--68] notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than…
Coalgebras in a Kleisli category yield a generic definition of trace semantics for various types of labelled transition systems. In this paper we apply this generic theory to generative probabilistic transition systems, short PTS, with…
We develop a framework for the operationalization of models and parameters by combining de Finetti's representation theorem with a conditional form of Sanov's theorem. This synthesis, the tilted de Finetti theorem, shows that conditioning…
The extended de Finetti theorem characterizes exchangeable infinite random sequences as conditionally i.i.d. and shows that the apparently weaker distributional symmetry of spreadability is equivalent to exchangeability. Our main result is…
We present a categorical viewpoint of probability measures by showing that a probability measure can be viewed as a weakly averaging affine measurable functional taking values in the unit interval which preserves limits. The probability…
We introduce a general framework for de Finetti reduction results, applicable to various notions of partially exchangeable probability distributions. Explicit statements are derived for the cases of exchangeability, Markov exchangeability,…
Motivated by recent interests in predictive inference under distribution shift, we study the problem of approximating finite weighted exchangeable sequences by a mixture of finite sequences with independent terms. Various bounds are derived…
The stochastic interpretation of Parikh's game logic should not follow the usual pattern of Kripke models, which in turn are based on the Kleisli morphisms for the Giry monad, rather, a specific and more general approach to probabilistic…
This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and…
Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study exchangeability assessments…
A coalgebraic definition of finite and infinite trace semantics for probabilistic transition systems has recently been given using a certain Kleisli category. In this paper this semantics is developed using a coalgebraic method which is an…
We define and study a probability monad on the category of complete metric spaces and short maps. It assigns to each space the space of Radon probability measures on it with finite first moment, equipped with the Kantorovich-Wasserstein…