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In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-14 Yue Wu , Jose Miguel Hernandez Lobato , Zoubin Ghahramani

In order to scale standard Gaussian process (GP) regression to large-scale datasets, aggregation models employ factorized training process and then combine predictions from distributed experts. The state-of-the-art aggregation models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-05 Haitao Liu , Jianfei Cai , Yi Wang , Yew-Soon Ong

Normalizing flows are a promising tool for modeling probability distributions in physical systems. While state-of-the-art flows accurately approximate distributions and energies, applications in physics additionally require smooth energies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-01 Jonas Köhler , Andreas Krämer , Frank Noé

Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Petar Bevanda , Max Beier , Armin Lederer , Alexandre Capone , Stefan Sosnowski , Sandra Hirche

The two key characteristics of a normalizing flow is that it is invertible (in particular, dimension preserving) and that it monitors the amount by which it changes the likelihood of data points as samples are propagated along the network.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-27 Bálint Máté , Samuel Klein , Tobias Golling , François Fleuret

A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 Bingjing Tang , Julia Palacios

Flow-based generative models parameterize probability distributions through an invertible transformation and can be trained by maximum likelihood. Invertible residual networks provide a flexible family of transformations where only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-27 Ricky T. Q. Chen , Jens Behrmann , David Duvenaud , Jörn-Henrik Jacobsen

Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in nature and engineering. A case in point is a class of neural networks in the infinite-width limit, whose priors correspond to Gaussian processes. Here we perturbatively extend this correspondence to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-28 Sho Yaida

This work presents mixed variational flows (MixFlows), a new variational family that consists of a mixture of repeated applications of a map to an initial reference distribution. First, we provide efficient algorithms for i.i.d. sampling,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-03 Zuheng Xu , Naitong Chen , Trevor Campbell

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Tomoharu Iwata , Zoubin Ghahramani

Normalizing Flows (NFs) describe a class of models that express a complex target distribution as the composition of a series of bijective transformations over a simpler base distribution. By limiting the space of candidate transformations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-11 Keegan Kelly , Lorena Piedras , Sukrit Rao , David Roth

Recently, studies on machine learning have focused on methods that use symmetry implicit in a specific manifold as an inductive bias. Grassmann manifolds provide the ability to handle fundamental shapes represented as shape spaces, enabling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Ryoma Yataka , Kazuki Hirashima , Masashi Shiraishi

Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and generalization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is…

For numerous parameter and state estimation problems, assimilating new data as they become available can help produce accurate and fast inference of unknown quantities. While most existing algorithms for solving those kind of ill-posed…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-07-28 Neil K. Chada , Marco A. Iglesias , Shuai Lu , Frank Werner

Sequential probabilistic inference from streaming observations requires modeling distributions over future trajectories as new observations arrive. Although diffusion and flow-matching models are effective at capturing high-dimensional,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Yinan Huang , Hans Hao-Hsun Hsu , Junran Wang , Bo Dai , Pan Li

Normalizing flows are generative models that provide tractable density estimation via an invertible transformation from a simple base distribution to a complex target distribution. However, this technique cannot directly model data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-15 Brendan Leigh Ross , Jesse C. Cresswell

In many scientific applications, the target probability distribution cannot be evaluated in closed form or sampled from directly. Instead, it can often be decomposed into multiple components, some of which are accessible only through…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Roxana Darvishi , David C. Stenning , Ted von Hippel , Owen G. Ward

A set of probabilities along with corresponding quantiles are often used to define predictive distributions or probabilistic forecasts. These quantile predictions offer easily interpreted uncertainty of an event, and quantiles are generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-10 Spencer Wadsworth , Jarad Niemi

Recent work shows that path gradient estimators for normalizing flows have lower variance compared to standard estimators for variational inference, resulting in improved training. However, they are often prohibitively more expensive from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Lorenz Vaitl , Ludwig Winkler , Lorenz Richter , Pan Kessel
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