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This work presents ensemble forecasting of monthly electricity demand using pattern similarity-based forecasting methods (PSFMs). PSFMs applied in this study include $k$-nearest neighbor model, fuzzy neighborhood model, kernel regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-02 Paweł Pełka , Grzegorz Dudek

This work presents a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for forecasting a monthly electricity demand time series with a one-year horizon. The novelty of this work is the use of pattern representation of the seasonal time series as an…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-04-29 Paweł Pełka , Grzegorz Dudek

This work contributes to the development of neural forecasting models with novel randomization-based learning methods. These methods improve the fitting abilities of the neural model, in comparison to the standard method, by generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-06 Grzegorz Dudek

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Aleksei Kychkin , Georgios C. Chasparis

The use of patterns in predictive models is a topic that has received a lot of attention in recent years. Pattern mining can help to obtain models for structured domains, such as graphs and sequences, and has been proposed as a means to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-11-29 Björn Bringmann , Siegfried Nijssen , Albrecht Zimmermann

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Abhishek Maity , Viraj Tukarul

The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-07-24 Filippo Maria Bianchi , Enrico Maiorino , Michael C. Kampffmeyer , Antonello Rizzi , Robert Jenssen

As a result of increasing population and globalization, the demand for energy has greatly risen. Therefore, accurate energy consumption forecasting has become an essential prerequisite for government planning, reducing power wastage and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Muhammad Bilal , Hyeok Kim , Muhammad Fayaz , Pravin Pawar

In this study, we delve into the realm of meta-learning to combine point base forecasts for probabilistic short-term electricity demand forecasting. Our approach encompasses the utilization of quantile linear regression, quantile regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Grzegorz Dudek

In this work, we propose an ensemble forecasting approach based on randomized neural networks. Improved randomized learning streamlines the fitting abilities of individual learners by generating network parameters in accordance with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Grzegorz Dudek , Paweł Pełka

In this paper, we investigate meta-learning for combining forecasts generated by models of different types. While typical approaches for combining forecasts involve simple averaging, machine learning techniques enable more sophisticated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Grzegorz Dudek

Within smart manufacturing, data driven techniques are commonly adopted for condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of rotating machinery. Classical approaches use supervised learning where a classifier is trained on labeled data to…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-02 Sulaiman Aburakhia , Tareq Tayeh , Ryan Myers , Abdallah Shami

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-17 Xixi Li , Fotios Petropoulos , Yanfei Kang

Time series data is being used everywhere, from sales records to patients' health evolution metrics. The ability to deal with this data has become a necessity, and time series analysis and forecasting are used for the same. Every Machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Rameshwar Garg , Shriya Barpanda , Girish Rao Salanke N S , Ramya S

Accurate electrical load forecasting is crucial for optimizing power system operations, planning, and management. As power systems become increasingly complex, traditional forecasting methods may fail to capture the intricate patterns and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-26 Elias Raffoul , Mingjian Tuo , Cunzhi Zhao , Tianxia Zhao , Meng Ling , Xingpeng Li

Accurate mid-term (weeks to one year) hourly electricity load forecasts are essential for strategic decision-making in power plant operation, ensuring supply security and grid stability, planning and building energy storage systems, and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-01 Monika Zimmermann , Florian Ziel

We consider the problem of power demand forecasting in residential micro-grids. Several approaches using ARMA models, support vector machines, and recurrent neural networks that perform one-step ahead predictions have been proposed in the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-06-30 Riccardo Bonetto , Michele Rossi

This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-19 Michael Koller , Johannes Feldmaier , Klaus Diepold

Predictive modeling and time-pattern analysis are increasingly critical in this swiftly shifting retail environment to improve operational efficiency and informed decision-making. This paper reports a comprehensive application of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Sri Darshan M , Jaisachin B , NithinRaj N

Deciding which predictors to use plays an integral role in deriving statistical models in a wide range of applications. Motivated by the challenges of predicting events across a telecommunications network, we propose a semi-automated, joint…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-10 Aaron Lowther , Paul Fearnhead , Matthew Nunes , Kjeld Jensen
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