Related papers: Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns fo…
The recent pandemic emphasized the need to consider the role of human behavior in shaping epidemic dynamics. In particular, it is necessary to extend beyond the classical epidemiological structures to fully capture the interplay between the…
Nowcasting and forecasting of epidemic spreading rely on incidence series of reported cases to derive the fundamental epidemiological parameters for a given pathogen. Two relevant drawbacks for predictions are the unknown fractions of…
Most epidemic models are spatially aggregate and the index which is most used for planning and policy numbers, the r number, typically refers to a single system of interest. Even if r numbers are calculated for each of adjacent areas,…
The COVID-19 pandemic and its multiple outbreaks have challenged governments around the world. Much of the epidemiological modeling was based on pre-pandemic contact information of the population, which changed drastically due to…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
The transmission dynamics of some infectious diseases is related to the contact structure between individuals in a network. We used five algorithms to generate contact networks with different topological structure but with the same…
Mathematical modeling is one of the key factors of the effective control of newly found infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. Our knowledge about the parameters and the course of the infection is highly limited in the beginning of the…
We present a methodology providing a one-directional link from within-host individual heterogeneity to population-level disease transmission dynamics. The methodology works in several steps. A within-host model is investigated numerically…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
In this work, the aim is to study the spread of a contagious disease and information on a multilayer social system. The main idea is to find a criterion under which the adoption of the spreading information blocks or suppresses the epidemic…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
We combine a pedestrian dynamics model with a contact tracing method to simulate the initial spreading of a highly infectious airborne disease in a confined environment. We focus on a medium size population (up to 1000 people) with a small…
can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic…
Contacts' temporal ordering and dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission of infectious diseases. We introduce an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks. We demonstrate our interaction-driven…
We present a contact-based model to study the spreading of epidemics by means of extending the dynamic message passing approach to temporal networks. The shift in perspective from node- to edge-centric quantities enables accurate modelling…
Models with several levels of mixing (households, workplaces), as well as various corresponding formulations for R0, have been proposed in the literature. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of the distribution of the…
Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic…
The most frequent infectious diseases in humans - and those with the highest potential for rapid pandemic spread - are usually transmitted via droplets during close proximity interactions (CPIs). Despite the importance of this transmission…
Recent statistics of malaria shows that over 200 million cases and estimated deaths of nearly half a million occur globally. Africa alone accounts for almost 90% of the cases. Several studies have been conducted to understand the disease…
Information dissemination intricately intertwines with the dynamics of infectious diseases in the contemporary interconnected world. Recognizing the critical role of public awareness, individual vaccination choices appear to be an essential…