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Probabilities or confidence values produced by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models often do not reflect their true accuracy, with some models being under or over confident in their predictions. For example, if a…
Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that…
Large language models are increasingly used for code generation and debugging, but their outputs can still contain bugs, that originate from training data. Distinguishing whether an LLM prefers correct code, or a familiar incorrect version…
The software engineering field has a long history of classifying software failure causes. Understanding them is paramount for fault injection, focusing testing efforts or reliability prediction. Since software fails in manifold complex…
Machine learning models typically focus on specific targets like creating classifiers, often based on known population feature distributions in a business context. However, models calculating individual features adapt over time to improve…
Knowing when a classifier's prediction can be trusted is useful in many applications and critical for safely using AI. While the bulk of the effort in machine learning research has been towards improving classifier performance,…
Strong empirical evidence that one machine-learning algorithm A outperforms another one B ideally calls for multiple trials optimizing the learning pipeline over sources of variation such as data sampling, data augmentation, parameter…
This research investigates the use of machine learning methods to forecast students' academic performance in a school setting. Students' data with behavioral, academic, and demographic details were used in implementations with standard…
There exist a wide range of single number metrics for assessing performance of classification algorithms, including AUC and the F1-score (Wikipedia lists 17 such metrics, with 27 different names). In this article, I propose a new metric to…
Machine learning algorithms are extensively used to make increasingly more consequential decisions about people, so achieving optimal predictive performance can no longer be the only focus. A particularly important consideration is fairness…
Considerable efforts to measure and mitigate gender bias in recent years have led to the introduction of an abundance of tasks, datasets, and metrics used in this vein. In this position paper, we assess the current paradigm of gender bias…
Methods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly) make the…
ML is playing an increasingly crucial role in estimating causal effects of treatments on outcomes from observational data. Many ML methods (`causal estimators') have been proposed for this task. All of these methods, as with any ML…
Many real-world classification problems are significantly class-imbalanced to detriment of the class of interest. The standard set of proper evaluation metrics is well-known but the usual assumption is that the test dataset imbalance equals…
Empirical and LLM-based research in model-driven engineering increasingly relies on datasets of software models, for instance, to train or evaluate machine learning techniques for modeling support. These datasets have a significant impact…
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly used to inform critical decisions. There is a growing concern about bias, that algorithms may produce uneven outcomes for individuals in different demographic groups. In this work, we measure…
The cost of errors related to machine learning classifiers, namely, false positives and false negatives, are not equal and are application dependent. For example, in cybersecurity applications, the cost of not detecting an attack is very…
Predictions of uncertainty-aware models are diverse, ranging from single point estimates (often averaged over prediction samples) to predictive distributions, to set-valued or credal-set representations. We propose a novel unified…
Uncertainty quantification is a set of techniques that measure confidence in language models. They can be used, for example, to detect hallucinations or alert users to review uncertain predictions. To be useful, these confidence scores must…
Bug prediction is the process of training a machine learning model on software metrics and fault information to predict bugs in software entities. While feature selection is an important step in building a robust prediction model, there is…