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Time series forecasting underpins vital decision-making across various sectors, yet raw predictions from sophisticated models often harbor systematic errors and biases. We examine the Forecast-Then-Optimize (FTO) framework, pioneering its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Jinhang Jiang , Nan Wu , Ben Liu , Mei Feng , Xin Ji , Karthik Srinivasan

Decision tree models, including random forests and gradient-boosted decision trees, are widely used in machine learning due to their high predictive performance. However, their complex structures often make them difficult to interpret,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Akihiro Takemura , Masayuki Otani , Katsumi Inoue

Decision trees, owing to their interpretability, are attractive as control policies for (dynamical) systems. Unfortunately, constructing, or synthesising, such policies is a challenging task. Previous approaches do so by imitating a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Emir Demirović , Christian Schilling , Anna Lukina

Uncertainty in optimization is often represented as stochastic parameters in the optimization model. In Predict-Then-Optimize approaches, predictions of a machine learning model are used as values for such parameters, effectively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Pieter Smet

Incorporating domain-specific constraints into machine learning models is essential for generating predictions that are both accurate and feasible in real-world applications. This paper introduces new methods for training Output-Constrained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Hüseyin Tunç , Doğanay Özese , Ş. İlker Birbil , Donato Maragno , Marco Caserta , Mustafa Baydoğan

Decision trees and their ensembles are popular in machine learning as easy-to-understand models. Several techniques have been proposed in the literature for learning tree-based classifiers, with different techniques working well for data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Maria-Florina Balcan , Dravyansh Sharma

Decision tree optimization is notoriously difficult from a computational perspective but essential for the field of interpretable machine learning. Despite efforts over the past 40 years, only recently have optimization breakthroughs been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-24 Jimmy Lin , Chudi Zhong , Diane Hu , Cynthia Rudin , Margo Seltzer

Real-world scenarios frequently involve multi-objective data-driven optimization problems, characterized by unknown problem coefficients and multiple conflicting objectives. Traditional two-stage methods independently apply a machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Peng Li , Lixia Wu , Chaoqun Feng , Haoyuan Hu , Lei Fu , Jieping Ye

We present an algorithm for learning decision trees using stochastic gradient information as the source of supervision. In contrast to previous approaches to gradient-based tree learning, our method operates in the incremental learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-25 Henry Gouk , Bernhard Pfahringer , Eibe Frank

The Predict-Then-Optimize framework uses machine learning models to predict unknown parameters of an optimization problem from exogenous features before solving. This setting is common to many real-world decision processes, and recently it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 James Kotary , Vincenzo Di Vito , Jacob Cristopher , Pascal Van Hentenryck , Ferdinando Fioretto

In the last years decision-focused learning framework, also known as predict-and-optimize, have received increasing attention. In this setting, the predictions of a machine learning model are used as estimated cost coefficients in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Jayanta Mandi , Víctor Bucarey , Maxime Mulamba , Tias Guns

Many decision processes in artificial intelligence and operations research are modeled by parametric optimization problems whose defining parameters are unknown and must be inferred from observable data. The Predict-Then-Optimize (PtO)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-13 My H Dinh , James Kotary , Ferdinando Fioretto

Owing to their inherently interpretable structure, decision trees are commonly used in applications where interpretability is essential. Recent work has focused on improving various aspects of decision trees, including their predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-30 Dimitris Bertsimas , Vassilis Digalakis

Data-driven approaches to predict-then-optimize decision-making problems seek to mitigate the risk of uncertainty region misspecification in safety-critical settings. Current approaches, however, suffer from considering overly conservative…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Yash Patel , Sahana Rayan , Ambuj Tewari

Decision trees provide a rich family of highly non-linear but efficient models, due to which they continue to be the go-to family of predictive models by practitioners across domains. But learning trees is challenging due to their discrete…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Ajaykrishna Karthikeyan , Naman Jain , Nagarajan Natarajan , Prateek Jain

The sequential parameter optimization (SPOT) package for R is a toolbox for tuning and understanding simulation and optimization algorithms. Model-based investigations are common approaches in simulation and optimization. Sequential…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2010-06-25 Thomas Bartz-Beielstein

Random forests and, more generally, (decision\nobreakdash-)tree ensembles are widely used methods for classification and regression. Recent algorithmic advances allow to compute decision trees that are optimal for various measures such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-25 Christian Komusiewicz , Pascal Kunz , Frank Sommer , Manuel Sorge

Decision trees built with data remain in widespread use for nonparametric prediction. Predicting probability distributions is preferred over point predictions when uncertainty plays a prominent role in analysis and decision-making. We study…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Sara Shashaani , Ozge Surer , Matthew Plumlee , Seth Guikema

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yuta Nakahara , Shota Saito , Naoki Ichijo , Koki Kazama , Toshiyasu Matsushima

Optimal Transport (OT) naturally arises in many machine learning applications, yet the heavy computational burden limits its wide-spread uses. To address the scalability issue, we propose an implicit generative learning-based framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-26 Yujia Xie , Minshuo Chen , Haoming Jiang , Tuo Zhao , Hongyuan Zha