Related papers: Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting
We investigate dynamics of deformable self-propelled particles with a repulsive interaction whose magnitude depends on the relative direction of elongation of a pair of particles. A collective motion of the particles appears in two…
Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human…
Force-based models describe pedestrian dynamics in analogy to classical mechanics by a system of second order ordinary differential equations. By investigating the linear stability of two main classes of forces, parameter regions with…
We study random walks on contingency tables with fixed marginals, corresponding to a (log-linear) hierarchical model. If the set of allowed moves is not a Markov basis, then there exist tables with the same marginals that are not connected.…
We extend the stationary-state work fluctuation theorem to periodically modulated nonlinear systems. Such systems often have coexisting stable periodic states. We show that work fluctuations sharply increase near a kinetic phase transition…
This paper studies the unconditional effects of a general policy intervention, which includes location-scale shifts and simultaneous shifts as special cases. The location-scale shift is intended to study a counterfactual policy aimed at…
In this paper, we perform statistical segmentation and clustering analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average time series between January 1997 and August 2008. Modeling the index movements and log-index movements as stationary Gaussian…
Working becomes harder as we grow tired or bored. I model individuals who underestimate these changes in marginal disutility -- as implied by "projection bias" -- when deciding whether or not to continue working. This bias causes people's…
Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage…
Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, I study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of…
The classical DICE model is a widely accepted integrated assessment model for the joint modeling of economic and climate systems, where all model state variables evolve over time deterministically. We reformulate and solve the DICE model as…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, p(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+ A2, where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients, was found for developed economies. The…
We develop a deep learning model of multi-period mortgage risk and use it to analyze an unprecedented dataset of origination and monthly performance records for over 120 million mortgages originated across the US between 1995 and 2014. Our…
Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is a highly prevalent mental health condition, and a deeper understanding of its neurocognitive foundations is essential for identifying how core functions such as emotional and self-referential processing…
An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…
Prior research has shown that changes in seasons and weather can have a significant impact on depression severity. However, findings are inconsistent across populations, and the interplay between weather, behavior, and depression has not…
In this article, I present a new approach and a novel model to the study of the life cycle of wages. The key idea is that wage can be thought as remuneration paid for the competency. It is assumed with the approach that there are three…
One-dimensional run-and-tumble processes may converge towards some localized non-equilibrium steady state when the two velocities and/or the two switching rates are space-dependent. A long dynamical trajectory can be then analyzed via the…
Instability patterns of rolling up a sleeve appear more intricate than the ones of walking over a rug on floor, both characterized as uniaxially compressed soft-film/stiff-substrate systems. This can be explained by curvature effects. To…
Onset of double-component convection due to different boundary conditions is studied in a diversely oriented infinite slot with broken reflection symmetry between the slot conditions for a component. Among other outcomes, the broken…