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A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

Bayesian graphical modeling provides an appealing way to obtain uncertainty estimates when inferring network structures, and much recent progress has been made for Gaussian models. These models have been used extensively in applications to…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-06 Michael Finegold , Mathias Drton

Finite mixtures of matrix normal distributions are a powerful tool for classifying three-way data in unsupervised problems. The distribution of each component is assumed to be a matrix variate normal density. The mixture model can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-07 Cinzia Viroli

The widely recommended procedure of Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the M-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-15 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

Comparisons of different treatments or production processes are the goals of a significant fraction of applied research. Unsurprisingly, two-sample problems play a main role in Statistics through natural questions such as `Is the the new…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-05 P. C. Álvarez-Esteban , E. del Barrio , J. A. Cuesta-Albertos , C. Matrán

In mixture model-based clustering applications, it is common to fit several models from a family and report clustering results from only the `best' one. In such circumstances, selection of this best model is achieved using a model selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-09 Yuhong Wei , Paul D. McNicholas

Ranking and comparing items is crucial for collecting information about preferences in many areas, from marketing to politics. The Mallows rank model is among the most successful approaches to analyse rank data, but its computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-28 Valeria Vitelli , Øystein Sørensen , Marta Crispino , Arnoldo Frigessi , Elja Arjas

We study the problem of multiple hypothesis testing for multidimensional data when inter-correlations are present. The problem of multiple comparisons is common in many applications. When the data is multivariate and correlated, existing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-02 Mahdis Azadbakhsh , Xin Gao , Hanna Jankowski

This paper studies the problem of learning clusters which are consistently present in different (continuously valued) representations of observed data. Our setup differs slightly from the standard approach of (co-) clustering as we use the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-09-21 David R. Hardoon , Kristiaan Pelcksman

In the typical analysis of a data set, a single method is selected for statistical reporting even when equally applicable methods yield very different results. Examples of equally applicable methods can correspond to those of different…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-30 David R. Bickel

Missing data is a common issue in many biomedical studies. Under a paired design, some subjects may have missing values in either one or both of the conditions due to loss of follow-up, insufficient biological samples, etc. Such partially…

We propose a general method for distributed Bayesian model choice, using the marginal likelihood, where a data set is split in non-overlapping subsets. These subsets are only accessed locally by individual workers and no data is shared…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-18 Alexander Buchholz , Daniel Ahfock , Sylvia Richardson

Applied researchers often find themselves making statistical inferences in settings that would seem to require multiple comparisons adjustments. We challenge the Type I error paradigm that underlies these corrections. Moreover we posit that…

Applications · Statistics 2009-07-16 Andrew Gelman , Jennifer Hill , Masanao Yajima

Motivation: Model selection is a ubiquitous challenge in statistics. For penalized models, model selection typically entails tuning hyperparameters to maximize a measure of fit or minimize out-of-sample prediction error. However, these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-29 Priyam Das , Sarah Robinson , Christine B. Peterson

Pairwise comparison models have been widely used for utility evaluation and rank aggregation across various fields. The increasing scale of modern problems underscores the need to understand statistical inference in these models when the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Ruijian Han , Wenlu Tang , Yiming Xu

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

We explore the estimation of generalized additive models using basis expansion in conjunction with Bayesian model selection. Although Bayesian model selection is useful for regression splines, it has traditionally been applied mainly to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-02 Gyeonghun Kang , Seonghyun Jeong

Analyzing time-series cross-sectional (also known as longitudinal or panel) data is an important process across a number of fields, including the social sciences, economics, finance, and medicine. PanelMatch is an R package that implements…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Adam Rauh , In Song Kim , Kosuke Imai

Estimating statistical models within sensor networks requires distributed algorithms, in which both data and computation are distributed across the nodes of the network. We propose a general approach for distributed learning based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Qiang Liu , Alexander Ihler

Graph comparison is fundamentally important for many applications such as the analysis of social networks and biological data and has been a significant research area in the pattern recognition and pattern analysis domains. Nowadays, the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-02-27 Hamida Seba , Sofiane Lagraa , Elsen Ronando