Related papers: Gaussian Process Regression for Probabilistic Shor…
Modeling and predicting solar events, particularly the solar ramping event, is critical for improving situational awareness for solar power generation systems. It has been acknowledged that weather conditions such as temperature, humidity,…
Probabilistic forecasting of power consumption in a middle-term horizon (months to a year) is a main challenge in the energy sector. It plays a key role in planning future generation plants and transmission grid. We propose a new model that…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting using robust methods. We demonstrate a proof of concept of using a data-driven supervised…
For the efficient and safe use of lithium-ion batteries, diagnosing their current state and predicting future states are crucial. Although there exist many models for the prediction of battery cycle life, they typically have very complex…
Accurately representing surface weather at the sub-kilometer scale is crucial for optimal decision-making in a wide range of applications. This motivates the use of statistical techniques to provide accurate and calibrated probabilistic…
Regional solar power forecasting, which involves predicting the total power generation from all rooftop photovoltaic systems in a region holds significant importance for various stakeholders in the energy sector. However, the vast amount of…
Quantifying the uncertainty of wind energy potential from climate models is a very time-consuming task and requires a considerable amount of computational resources. A statistical model trained on a small set of runs can act as a stochastic…
Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and…
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems…
In this paper we present a probabilistic analysis framework to estimate behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation in real time. We develop a forward model consisting of a spatiotemporal stochastic process that represents the photovoltaic…
By the end of 2021, the renewable energy share of the global electricity capacity reached 38.3% and the new installations are dominated by wind and solar energy, showing global increases of 12.7% and 18.5%, respectively. However, both wind…
This paper presents SolarBoost, a novel approach for forecasting power output in distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems. While existing centralized photovoltaic (CPV) methods are able to precisely model output dependencies due to…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…
Accurate estimation of solar irradiance is essential for reliable modelling of solar photovoltaic (PV) power production. In Ireland's highly variable maritime climate, where ground-based measurement stations are sparsely distributed,…
Due to the increasing integration of solar power into the electrical grid, forecasting short-term solar irradiance has become key for many applications, e.g.~operational planning, power purchases, reserve activation, etc. In this context,…
We present a physics-informed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model to predict the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power from a limited number of measurements. In the traditional data-driven GPR method, the form of the…
Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation (also called total generation) is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work…
Satellite-based solar irradiation forecasting is useful for short-term intra-day time horizons, outperforming numerical weather predictions up to 3-4 hours ahead. The main techniques for solar satellite forecast are based on sophisticated…