English
Related papers

Related papers: Gaussian Process Regression for Probabilistic Shor…

200 papers

Physically motivated Gaussian process (GP) kernels for stellar variability, like the commonly used damped, driven simple harmonic oscillators that model stellar granulation and p-mode oscillations, quantify the instantaneous covariance…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-14 Jacob K. Luhn , Ryan A. Rubenzahl , Samuel Halverson , Lily L. Zhao

This paper compares different forecasting methods and models to predict average values of solar irradiance with a sampling time of 15 min over a prediction horizon of up to 3 h. The methods considered only require historic solar irradiance…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-30 Christian A. Hans , Elin Klages

Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing…

Applications · Statistics 2013-10-28 Emil B. Iversen , Juan M. Morales , Jan K. Møller , Henrik Madsen

Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy resources. Forecasting photovoltaic power generation is an important way to increase photovoltaic penetration. However, the difficulty in qualifying the uncertainty of PV power…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Xuan Yang , Yunxuan Dong , Lina Yang , Thomas Wu

The high penetration of volatile renewable energy sources such as solar make methods for coping with the uncertainty associated with them of paramount importance. Probabilistic forecasts are an example of these methods, as they assist…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-21 Vinayak Sharma , Jorge Angel Gonzalez Ordiano , Ralf Mikut , Umit Cali

Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-28 Mohana Alanazi , Mohsen Mahoor , Amin Khodaei

Faults in photovoltaic (PV) systems can seriously affect the efficiency, energy yield as well as the security of the entire PV plant, if not detected and corrected quickly. Therefore, fault diagnosis of PV arrays is indispensable for…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-20 Qianni Cao , Chen Shen , Mengshuo Jia

The rapid growth of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems necessitates advanced methods for performance monitoring and anomaly detection to ensure optimal operation. In this study, we propose a novel approach leveraging Temporal Graph Neural…

Evaporation is one of the main processes in the hydrological cycle, and it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, the evaporation…

The stochastic differential equation (SDE)-based random process models of volatile renewable energy sources (RESs) jointly capture the evolving probability distribution and temporal correlation in continuous time. It has enabled recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Yiwei Qiu , Jin Lin , Zhipeng Zhou , Ningyi Dai , Feng Liu , Yonghua Song

This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-18 Gabriel Dantas , Jethro Browell

The increased usage of solar energy places additional importance on forecasts of solar radiation. Solar panel power production is primarily driven by the amount of solar radiation and it is therefore important to have accurate forecasts of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-04 Kilian Bakker , Kirien Whan , Wouter Knap , Maurice Schmeits

Solar forecasting accuracy is affected by weather conditions, and weather awareness forecasting models are expected to improve the performance. However, it may not be available and reliable to classify different forecasting tasks by using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-14 Cong Feng , Mingjian Cui , Bri-Mathias Hodge , Siyuan Lu , Hendrik F. Hamann , Jie Zhang

To cater the rapidly growing demand for electricity leading to the integration of renewable energy sources in power system. Due to intermittent nature of renewables, it also brings challenges for research community during the planning and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-14 Rustam Kumar

The increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation introduces significant uncertainty into power system operation, necessitating forecasting approaches that extend beyond deterministic point predictions. This paper proposes an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Slawek Smyl , Paweł Pełka , Grzegorz Dudek

The integration of renewable resources has increased in power generation as a means to reduce the fossil fuel usage and mitigate its adverse effects on the environment. However, renewables like solar energy are stochastic in nature due to…

Solar energy forecasting has seen tremendous growth in the last decade using historical time series collected from a weather station, such as weather variables wind speed and direction, solar radiance, and temperature. It helps in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Soham Vyas , Yuvraj Goyal , Neel Bhatt , Sanskar Bhuwania , Hardik Patel , Shakti Mishra , Brijesh Tripathi

PV power forecasting models are predominantly based on machine learning algorithms which do not provide any insight into or explanation about their predictions (black boxes). Therefore, their direct implementation in environments where…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-08 Georgios Mitrentsis , Hendrik Lens

The prediction of solar irradiance enhances reliability in photovoltaic (PV) solar plant generation and grid integration. In Colombia, PV plants face penalties if energy production deviates beyond governmental thresholds from intraday…

This paper considers a typical solar installations scenario with limited sensing resources. In the literature, there exist either day-ahead solar generation prediction methods with limited accuracy, or high accuracy short timescale methods…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-12 Yubo Wang , Bin Wang , Rui Huang , Chi-Cheng Chu , Hemanshu R. Pota , Rajit Gadh