Related papers: Modelling volatile time series with v-transforms a…
We develop a procedure for forecasting the volatility of a time series immediately following a news shock. Adapting the similarity-based framework of Lin and Eck (2020), we exploit series that have experienced similar shocks. We aggregate…
Time series of counts occurring in various applications are often overdispersed, meaning their variance is much larger than the mean. This paper proposes a novel variable selection approach for processing such data. Our approach consists in…
Classical and more recent tests for detecting distributional changes in multivariate time series often lack power against alternatives that involve changes in the cross-sectional dependence structure. To be able to detect such changes…
Forecasting the number of trips in bike-sharing systems and its volatility over time is crucial for planning and optimizing such systems. This paper develops timeseries models to forecast hourly count timeseries data, and estimate its…
Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has been extensively applied across diverse domains, such as weather prediction and energy consumption. However, current studies still rely on the vanilla point-wise self-attention mechanism to…
Parametric conditional copula models allow the copula parameters to vary with a set of covariates according to an unknown calibration function. Flexible Bayesian inference for the calibration function of a bivariate conditional copula is…
This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…
We construct fractionally integrated continuous-time GARCH models, which capture the observed long range dependence of squared volatility in high-frequency data. Since the usual Molchan-Golosov and Mandelbrot-van-Ness fractional kernels…
Copula is a powerful tool to model multivariate data. We propose the modelling of intraday financial returns of multiple assets through copula. The problem originates due to the asynchronous nature of intraday financial data. We propose a…
A broad class of stochastic volatility models are defined by systems of stochastic differential equations. While these models have seen widespread success in domains such as finance and statistical climatology, they typically lack an…
We propose a new semiparametric approach for modelling nonlinear univariate diffusions, where the observed process is a nonparametric transformation of an underlying parametric diffusion (UPD). This modelling strategy yields a general class…
We propose a new copula model for replicated multivariate spatial data. Unlike classical models that assume multivariate normality of the data, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that some factors exist that affect the joint…
Time-dependent correlation functions of (unstable) particles undergoing biased or unbiased diffusion, coagulation and annihilation are calculated. This is achieved by similarity transformations between different stochastic models and…
We present small-time implied volatility asymptotics for Realised Variance (RV) and VIX options for a number of (rough) stochastic volatility models via large deviations principle. We provide numerical results along with efficient and…
Meta-elliptical copulas are often proposed to model dependence between the components of a random vector. They are specified by a correlation matrix and a map $g$, called density generator. While the latter correlation matrix can easily be…
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…
A factor copula model is proposed in which factors are either simulable or estimable from exogenous information. Point estimation and inference are based on a simulated methods of moments (SMM) approach with non-overlapping simulation…
Pair-copula constructions are flexible dependence models that use bivariate copulas as building blocks. In this paper, we use generalized additive models to extend them by allowing covariates effects. Borrowing ideas from a traditionally…
Time series often exhibit non-ergodic behaviour that complicates forecasting and inference. This article proposes a likelihood-based approach for estimating ergodicity transformations that addresses such challenges. The method is broadly…
In this paper, we introduce an asymptotic test procedure to assess the stability of volatilities and cross-volatilites of linear and nonlinear multivariate time series models. The test is very flexible as it can be applied, for example, to…