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Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Sam Allen , Jonathan Koh , Johan Segers , Johanna Ziegel

This paper concerns estimation and inference for treatment effects in deep tails of the counterfactual distribution of unobservable potential outcomes corresponding to a continuously valued treatment. We consider two measures for the deep…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-02 Wei Huang , Shuo Li , Liuhua Peng

We investigate the estimation of the extreme value index when the data are subject to random censorship. We prove, in a unified way, detailed asymptotic normality results for various estimators of the extreme value index and use these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 John H. J. Einmahl , Amélie Fils-Villetard , Armelle Guillou

The ideas of model averaging are used to find weights in peak-over-threshold problems using a possible range of thresholds. A range of the largest observations are chosen and considered as possible thresholds, each time performing…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2014-10-30 J. Martin van Zyl

We consider linear regression model estimation where the covariate of interest is randomly censored. Under a non-informative censoring mechanism, one may obtain valid estimates by deleting censored observations. However, this comes at a…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-24 Folefac Atem , Roland A. Matsouaka

Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-26 Chiara Lattanzi , Manuele Leonelli

In the framework of censored data modeling, the classical linear regression model that assumes normally distributed random errors has received increasing attention in recent years, mainly for mathematical and computational convenience.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Mehrdad Naderi , Elham Mirfarah , Matthew Bernhardt , Ding-Geng Chen

Many random phenomena, including life-testing and environmental data, show positive values and excess zeros, which pose modeling challenges. In life testing, immediate failures result in zero lifetimes, often due to defects or poor quality,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Shivshankar Nila , Ishapathik Das , N. Balakrishna

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 R. A. Davis , H. Drees , J. Segers , M. Warchoł

For the univariate current status and, more generally, the interval censoring model, distribution theory has been developed for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and smoothed maximum likelihood estimator (SMLE) of the unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-18 Piet Groeneboom

Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…

Applications · Statistics 2011-09-27 Marta Ferreira

By means of a Lynden-Bell integral with deterministic threshold, Worms and Worms [A Lynden-Bell integral estimator for extremes of randomly truncated data. Statist. Probab. Lett. 2016; 109: 106-117] recently introduced an asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Nawel Haouas , Abdelhakim Necir , Djamel Meraghni , Brahim Brahimi

The paper suggests a simple method of deriving minimax lower bounds to the accuracy of statistical inference on heavy tails. A well-known result by Hall and Welsh (Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 1079-1084) states that if $\hat{\alpha}_n$ is an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-14 S. Y. Novak

The hybrid censoring is a mixture of Type I and Type II censoring schemes. This paper presents the statistical inferences of the Inverse Weibull distribution when the data are Type-I hybrid censored. First we consider the maximum likelihood…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-04-07 Mohammad Kazemi , Mina Azizpour

Anomaly detection methods are widely used but often rely on ad hoc rules or strong assumptions, and they often focus on tail events, missing ``inlier'' anomalies that occur in low-density gaps between modes. We propose a unified framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Rob J Hyndman , David T. Frazier

Non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation encompasses a group of classic methods to estimate distribution-associated functions from potentially censored and truncated data, with extensive applications in survival analysis. These methods,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-05 Justin D. Tubbs , Lane Guolan Chen , Thuan Quoc Thach , Pak C. Sham

In this short note, we derive a new bias adjusted maximum likelihood estimate for the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution with complete data and type I censored data. The proposed estimate of the shape parameter is significantly…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-13 Enes Makalic , Daniel F. Schmidt

We investigate the frequentist properties of Bayesian procedures for estimation based on the horseshoe prior in the sparse multivariate normal means model. Previous theoretical results assumed that the sparsity level, that is, the number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Stéphanie van der Pas , Botond Szabó , Aad van der Vaart

Consider a random sample from a bivariate distribution function $F$ in the max-domain of attraction of an extreme-value distribution function $G$. This $G$ is characterized by two extreme-value indices and a spectral measure, the latter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-01 John H. J. Einmahl , Johan Segers

We consider heavy-tailed distributions and compare the well-known estimators of the tail index, based on extreme value theory with a comparatively recent estimator based on a different idea.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Vygantas Paulauskas , Marijus Vaičiulis