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Simulations using machine learning (ML) models and mechanistic models are often run to inform decision-making processes. Uncertainty estimates of simulation results are critical to the decision-making process because simulation results of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Babajide Kolade

Developing machine learning enabled smart manufacturing is promising for composite structures assembly process. To improve production quality and efficiency of the assembly process, accurate predictive analysis on dimensional deviations and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-24 Cheolhei Lee , Jianguo Wu , Wenjia Wang , Xiaowei Yue

Predictive variability due to data ambiguities has typically been addressed via construction of dedicated models with built-in probabilistic capabilities that are trained to predict uncertainty estimates as variables of interest. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Katarína Tóthová , Ľubor Ladický , Daniel Thul , Marc Pollefeys , Ender Konukoglu

This paper is concerned with a lesser-studied problem in the context of model-based, uncertainty quantification (UQ), that of optimization/design/control under uncertainty. The solution of such problems is hindered not only by the usual…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-17 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

Structural equation models are commonly used to capture the relationship between sets of observed and unobservable variables. Traditionally these models are fitted using frequentist approaches but recently researchers and practitioners have…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Khue-Dung Dang , Luca Maestrini

Generally, the normal displacement-based formation control has a sensing mode that requires the agent not only to have certain knowledge of its direction, but also to gather its local information characterized by nonnegative coupling…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-06 Zhen Li , Yang Tang , Yongqing Fan , Tingwen Huang

This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

The uncertainty quantification of sensor measurements coupled with deep learning networks is crucial for many robotics systems, especially for safety-critical applications such as self-driving cars. This paper develops an uncertainty…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Qiyuan Wu , Mark Campbell

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Ionut-Gabriel Farcas , Benjamin Peherstorfer , Tobias Neckel , Frank Jenko , Hans-Joachim Bungartz

Dose-response prediction in cancer is an active application field in machine learning. Using large libraries of \textit{in-vitro} drug sensitivity screens, the goal is to develop accurate predictive models that can be used to guide…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-07-02 Leiv Rønneberg , Vidhi Lalchand , Paul D. W. Kirk

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-19 Yen-Chi Chen , Y. Samuel Wang , Elena A. Erosheva

Monte-Carlo nuclear reaction and transport codes are widely used to devise accelerator-based nuclear physics experiments; at the same time, many experiments are performed to validate the Monte-Carlo codes, which can be used for the design…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2020-12-14 Vitaly Pronskikh

In this work we propose an Uncertainty Quantification methodology for sedimentary basins evolution under mechanical and geochemical compaction processes, which we model as a coupled, time-dependent, non-linear, monodimensional (depth-only)…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Ivo Colombo , Fabio Nobile , Giovanni Porta , Anna Scotti , Lorenzo Tamellini

Gaussian states are the backbone of quantum information protocols with continuous variable systems, whose power relies fundamentally on the entanglement between the different modes. In the case of global pure states, knowledge of the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-11-08 Fernando Nicacio , Andrea Valdés-Hernández , Ana P. Majtey , Fabricio Toscano

Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…

Wind energy is becoming an increasingly crucial component of a sustainable grid, but its inherent variability and limited predictability present challenges for grid operators. The energy sector needs novel forecasting techniques that can…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-05 Zheng Dong , Hanyu Zhang , Shixiang Zhu , Yao Xie , Pascal Van Hentenryck

In this paper, we investigate and design multiscale simulations for stochastic multiscale PDEs. As for the space, we consider a coarse grid and a known multiscale method, the Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM). In order…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-10 Zecheng Zhang , Eric Chung , Yalchin Efendiev , Wing Tat Leung

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse UQ using an…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-22 Xu Wu , Tomasz Kozlowski , Hadi Meidani , Koroush Shirvan

Well-established methods for the solution of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) typically struggle in problems with high-dimensional inputs/outputs. Such difficulties are only amplified in large-scale applications where even…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Constantin Grigo , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis