Related papers: Scaling features in the spreading of COVID-19
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…
Official freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. Data time…
After COVID-19 was first reported in China at the end of 2019, it took only a few months for this local crisis to turn into a global pandemic with unprecedented disruptions of everyday life. However, at any moment in time the situation in…
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus was found in a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. WHO officially named this coronavirus as COVID-19. Since the first patient was hospitalized on December 12, 2019, China has reported a total of…
Power-law scalings are ubiquitous to physical phenomena undergoing a continuous phase transition. The classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemics is one such example where the scaling behavior near a critical point has…
Typically, mathematical simulation studies on COVID-19 pandemic forecasting are based on deterministic differential equations which assume that both the number ($n$) of individuals in various epidemiological classes and the time ($t$) on…
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…
Analytical descriptions of patterns concerning spread and fatality during an epidemic, covering natural as well as restriction periods, are important for reducing damage. We employ a scaling model to investigate this aspect in the real data…
The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…
In all Countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in…
In order to predict the development trend of the 2019 coronavirus (2019-nCov), we established an prediction model to predict the number of diagnoses case in China except Hubei Province. From January 25 to January 29, 2020, we optimized 6…
The COVID-19 epidemic that emerged in Wuhan China at the end of 2019 hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules (Phase 1). There is now a hot ongoing debate in Italy and abroad on what the…
A timely understanding of the spatiotemporal pattern and development trend of COVID-19 is critical for timely prevention and control. However, the under-reporting of cases is widespread in fields associated with public health. It is also…
The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the coronavirus had a significant effect on social, economic, and health systems globally. The virus emerged in Wuhan, China, and spread worldwide resulting in severe disease, death, and social interference.…
Extreme public health interventions play a critical role in mitigating the local and global prevalence and pandemic potential of COVID-19. Here, we use population size for pathogen transmission to measure the intensity of public health…
In a move described as unprecedented in public health history, starting 24 January 2020, China imposed quarantine and isolation restrictions in Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. This raised the question: is mass quarantine and…
The Coronavirus, also known as the COVID-19 virus, has emerged in Wuhan China since late November 2019. Since that time, it has been spreading at large-scale until today all around the world. It is currently recognized as the world's most…
In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to analyze the dynamic behavior of COVID-19. Based on inter-city networked coupling effects, a fractional-order SEIHDR system with the real-data from 23 January to 18 March, 2020 of COVID-19…
The sudden spread of Covid-19 outside China has pushed on March 11 the World Health Organization to acknowledge the ongoing outbreak as a pandemic. It is crucial in this phase to understand what should countries which presently lag behind…
In late December 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing a severe, potentially fatal respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and is causing outbreaks in multiple world countries, soon…