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We consider the problem of using logged data to make predictions about what would happen if we changed the `rules of the game' in a multi-agent system. This task is difficult because in many cases we observe actions individuals take but not…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-04-05 Alexander Peysakhovich , Christian Kroer , Adam Lerer

Off-policy estimation (OPE) methods enable unbiased offline evaluation of recommender systems, directly estimating the online reward some target policy would have obtained, from offline data and with statistical guarantees. The theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Olivier Jeunen

Evaluating retrieval-ranking systems is crucial for developing high-performing models. While online A/B testing is the gold standard, its high cost and risks to user experience require effective offline methods. However, relying on…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Seyedeh Baharan Khatami , Sayan Chakraborty , Ruomeng Xu , Babak Salimi

This paper studies how insurers can chose which claims to investigate for fraud. Given a prediction model, typically only claims with the highest predicted propability of being fraudulent are investigated. We argue that this can lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-24 Christos Revelas , Otilia Boldea , Bas J. M. Werker

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Ruth H. Keogh , Nan van Geloven

Reinforcement learning algorithms are typically geared towards optimizing the expected return of an agent. However, in many practical applications, low variance in the return is desired to ensure the reliability of an algorithm. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-04 Arushi Jain , Gandharv Patil , Ayush Jain , Khimya Khetarpal , Doina Precup

Real-time bidding (RTB) systems, which utilize auctions to allocate user impressions to competing advertisers, continue to enjoy success in digital advertising. Assessing the effectiveness of such advertising remains a challenge in research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Caio Waisman , Harikesh S. Nair , Carlos Carrion

This study introduces a debiasing method for regression estimators, including high-dimensional and nonparametric regression estimators. For example, nonparametric regression methods allow for the estimation of regression functions in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Masahiro Kato

It has been recently shown in the literature that the sample averages from online learning experiments are biased when used to estimate the mean reward. To correct the bias, off-policy evaluation methods, including importance sampling and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-02 Ningyuan Chen , Xuefeng Gao , Yi Xiong

This paper extends off-policy reinforcement learning to the multi-agent case in which a set of networked agents communicating with their neighbors according to a time-varying graph collaboratively evaluates and improves a target policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-20 Wesley Suttle , Zhuoran Yang , Kaiqing Zhang , Zhaoran Wang , Tamer Basar , Ji Liu

In many machine learning applications, there are multiple decision-makers involved, both automated and human. The interaction between these agents often goes unaddressed in algorithmic development. In this work, we explore a simple version…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-10 David Madras , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

The goal of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is to evaluate a new policy using historical data obtained via a behavior policy. However, because the contextual bandit algorithm updates the policy based on past observations, the samples are not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Masahiro Kato , Yusuke Kaneko

Interpreting the inference-time behavior of deep neural networks remains a challenging problem. Existing approaches to counterfactual explanation typically ask: What is the closest alternative input that would alter the model's prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Brian Hyeongseok Kim , Jacqueline L. Mitchell , Chao Wang

Offline reinforcement learning aims to learn an agent from pre-collected datasets, avoiding unsafe and inefficient real-time interaction. However, inevitable access to out-ofdistribution actions during the learning process introduces…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Fan Zhang , Baoru Huang , Xin Zhang

We present a new approach to the problems of evaluating and learning personalized decision policies from observational data of past contexts, decisions, and outcomes. Only the outcome of the enacted decision is available and the historical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-04 Nathan Kallus

Learning the value function of a given policy (target policy) from the data samples obtained from a different policy (behavior policy) is an important problem in Reinforcement Learning (RL). This problem is studied under the setting of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-14 Raghuram Bharadwaj Diddigi , Chandramouli Kamanchi , Shalabh Bhatnagar

Abstaining classifiers have the option to abstain from making predictions on inputs that they are unsure about. These classifiers are becoming increasingly popular in high-stakes decision-making problems, as they can withhold uncertain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-10 Yo Joong Choe , Aditya Gangrade , Aaditya Ramdas

How do algorithmic decision aids introduced in business decision processes affect task performance? In a first experiment, we study effective collaboration. Faced with a decision, subjects alone have a success rate of 72%; Aided by a…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-09-18 Thomas Baudel , Manon Verbockhaven , Guillaume Roy , Victoire Cousergue , Rida Laarach

Many current applications use recommendations in order to modify the natural user behavior, such as to increase the number of sales or the time spent on a website. This results in a gap between the final recommendation objective and the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2018-08-06 Stephen Bonner , Flavian Vasile

Offline evaluations of recommender systems attempt to estimate users' satisfaction with recommendations using static data from prior user interactions. These evaluations provide researchers and developers with first approximations of the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Mucun Tian , Michael D. Ekstrand