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We consider evaluating the causal effects of dynamic treatments, i.e. of multiple treatment sequences in various periods, based on double machine learning to control for observed, time-varying covariates in a data-driven way under a…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-22 Hugo Bodory , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

We propose a double/debiased machine learning framework to estimate average derivative effects in nonparametric panel models with two-way fixed effects. It extends instrumental variable methods to panel settings, handles continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Peikai Wu , Kuan Sun , Zhiguo Xiao

We propose a doubly robust inference method for causal effects of continuous treatment variables, under unconfoundedness and with nonparametric or high-dimensional nuisance functions. Our double debiased machine learning (DML) estimators…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-02 Kyle Colangelo , Ying-Ying Lee

This paper considers the evaluation of discretely distributed treatments when outcomes are only observed for a subpopulation due to sample selection or outcome attrition. For identification, we combine a selection-on-observables assumption…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-16 Michela Bia , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

Estimation and inference of treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignments often suffer from bias and the `curse of dimensionality' due to the nonparametric estimation of nuisance parameters for high-dimensional confounders.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Zeqi Wu , Meilin Wang , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang

Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

We extend the idea of automated debiased machine learning to the dynamic treatment regime and more generally to nested functionals. We show that the multiply robust formula for the dynamic treatment regime with discrete treatments can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-22 Victor Chernozhukov , Whitney Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Effect modification occurs when the impact of the treatment on an outcome varies based on the levels of other covariates known as effect modifiers. Modeling these effect differences is important for etiological goals and for purposes of…

Uncovering causal mediation effects is of significant value to practitioners seeking to isolate the direct treatment effect from the potential mediated effect. We propose a double machine learning (DML) algorithm for mediation analysis that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Houssam Zenati , Judith Abécassis , Julie Josse , Bertrand Thirion

We suggest double/debiased machine learning estimators of direct and indirect quantile treatment effects under a selection-on-observables assumption. This permits disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment at a specific outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-04 Yu-Chin Hsu , Martin Huber , Yu-Min Yen

In empirical studies with time-to-event outcomes, investigators often leverage observational data to conduct causal inference on the effect of exposure when randomized controlled trial data is unavailable. Model misspecification and lack of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-05 Shenbo Xu , Bang Zheng , Bowen Su , Stan Finkelstein , Roy Welsch , Kenney Ng , Ioanna Tzoulaki , Zach Shahn

Double machine learning is a statistical method for leveraging complex black-box models to construct approximately unbiased treatment effect estimates given observational data with high-dimensional covariates, under the assumption of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-03 Nitai Fingerhut , Matteo Sesia , Yaniv Romano

Traditionally, spline or kernel approaches in combination with parametric estimation are used to infer the linear coefficient (fixed effects) in a partially linear mixed-effects model for repeated measurements. Using machine learning…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann

We develop an estimator for treatment effects in high-dimensional settings with additive measurement error, a prevalent challenge in modern econometrics. We introduce the Double/Debiased Convex Conditioned LASSO (Double/Debiased CoCoLASSO),…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-28 Geonwoo Kim , Suyong Song

Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and…

Observational cohort studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research to assess the safety of therapeutics. Recently, various doubly robust methods have been proposed for average treatment effect estimation by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Xiaoqing Tan , Shu Yang , Wenyu Ye , Douglas E. Faries , Ilya Lipkovich , Zbigniew Kadziola

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

We consider the estimation of the average treatment effect in the treated as a function of baseline covariates, where there is a valid (conditional) instrument. We describe two doubly robust (DR) estimators: a locally efficient g-estimator,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-11 Karla DiazOrdaz , Rhian Daniel , Noemi Kreif

The g-formula can be used to estimate causal effects of sustained treatment strategies using observational data under the identifying assumptions of consistency, positivity, and exchangeability. The non-iterative conditional expectation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-30 Sophia M Rein , Jing Li , Miguel Hernan , Andrew Beam

This paper extends difference-in-differences to settings with continuous treatments. Specifically, the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) at any level of treatment intensity is identified under a conditional parallel trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-05 Lucas Z. Zhang
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