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Many causal estimands, such as average treatment effects under unconfoundedness, can be written as continuous linear functionals of an unknown regression function. We study a weighting estimator that sets weights by a minimax procedure:…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Jing Kong

We develop a finite-sample optimal estimator for regression discontinuity design when the outcomes are bounded, including binary outcomes as the leading case. Our estimator achieves minimax mean squared error among linear shrinkage…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Takuya Ishihara , Masayuki Sawada , Kohei Yata

We analyze a new algorithm for probability forecasting of binary observations on the basis of the available data, without making any assumptions about the way the observations are generated. The algorithm is shown to be well calibrated and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Vladimir Vovk

A novel framework is introduced to formalize identifiability in well-specified but ill-posed linear regression models. The framework is distribution-free and accommodates highly correlated features that may or may not relate to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Gianluca Finocchio , Tatyana Krivobokova

In this paper we develop inference for high dimensional linear models, with serially correlated errors. We examine Lasso under the assumption of strong mixing in the covariates and error process, allowing for fatter tails in their…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-05 Ilias Chronopoulos , Katerina Chrysikou , George Kapetanios

Given a prediction task, understanding when one can and cannot design a consistent convex surrogate loss, particularly a low-dimensional one, is an important and active area of machine learning research. The prediction task may be given as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Jessie Finocchiaro , Rafael Frongillo , Bo Waggoner

We consider a general model for high-dimensional empirical risk minimization whereby the data $\mathbf{x}_i$ are $d$-dimensional Gaussian vectors, the model is parametrized by $\mathbf{\Theta}\in\mathbb{R}^{d\times k}$, and the loss depends…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-26 Kiana Asgari , Andrea Montanari , Basil Saeed

In this paper we characterize sharp time-data tradeoffs for optimization problems used for solving linear inverse problems. We focus on the minimization of a least-squares objective subject to a constraint defined as the sub-level set of a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-01-06 Samet Oymak , Benjamin Recht , Mahdi Soltanolkotabi

We consider the problem of exact recovery of a $k$-sparse binary vector from generalized linear measurements (such as logistic regression). We analyze the linear estimation algorithm (Plan, Vershynin, Yudovina, 2017), and also show…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-25 Arya Mazumdar , Neha Sangwan

We develop minimax optimal risk bounds for the general learning task consisting in predicting as well as the best function in a reference set $\mathcal{G}$ up to the smallest possible additive term, called the convergence rate. When the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-09 Jean-Yves Audibert

We obtain sharp oracle inequalities for the empirical risk minimization procedure in the regression model under the assumption that the target Y and the model F are subgaussian. The bound we obtain is sharp in the minimax sense if F is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-20 Guillaume Lecué , Shahar Mendelson

In functional linear regression, the parameters estimation involves solving a non necessarily well-posed problem and it has points of contact with a range of methodologies, including statistical smoothing, deconvolution and projection on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-04 Andrea Ghiglietti , Francesca Ieva , Anna Maria Paganoni , Giacomo Aletti

We consider the minimization of submodular functions subject to ordering constraints. We show that this optimization problem can be cast as a convex optimization problem on a space of uni-dimensional measures, with ordering constraints…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-31 Francis Bach

We present a framework for performing efficient regression in general metric spaces. Roughly speaking, our regressor predicts the value at a new point by computing a Lipschitz extension --- the smoothest function consistent with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-04-25 Lee-Ad Gottlieb , Aryeh Kontorovich , Robert Krauthgamer

Causal inference with observational studies often relies on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap of covariate distributions in different treatment groups. The overlap assumption is violated when some units have propensity scores…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Shu Yang , Peng Ding

Motivated by the prevalence of environments in which data is abundant while resources for storage and/or transmission might be scarce, we study linear regression when predictors, their squares, and responses are subject to single-bit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-01 Daniel Hill , Martin Slawski

We develop minimax optimal risk bounds for the general learning task consisting in predicting as well as the best function in a reference set G up to the smallest possible additive term, called the convergence rate. When the reference set…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-04 Jean-Yves Audibert

We study high-dimensional regression with missing entries in the covariates. A common strategy in practice is to \emph{impute} the missing entries with an appropriate substitute and then implement a standard statistical procedure acting as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Kabir Aladin Chandrasekher , Ahmed El Alaoui , Andrea Montanari

This paper proposes the capped least squares regression with an adaptive resistance parameter, hence the name, adaptive capped least squares regression. The key observation is, by taking the resistant parameter to be data dependent, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-02 Qiang Sun , Rui Mao , Wen-Xin Zhou

Inspired by logistic regression, we introduce a regression model for data tuples consisting of a binary response and a set of covariates residing in a metric space without vector structures. Based on the proposed model we also develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-15 Yinan Lin , Zhenhua Lin