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We examine the long-term behavior of a Bayesian agent who has a misspecified belief about the time lag between actions and feedback, and learns about the payoff consequences of his actions over time. Misspecified beliefs about time lags…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-12-15 Yingkai Li , Harry Pei

Observation of other people's choices can provide useful information in many circumstances. However, individuals may not utilize this information efficiently, i.e., they may make decision-making errors in social interactions. In this paper,…

General Economics · Economics 2021-08-10 Mohsen Foroughifar

Often in language and other areas of cognition, whether two components of an object are identical or not determine whether it is well formed. We call such constraints identity effects. When developing a system to learn well-formedness from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-05-12 Simone Brugiapaglia , Matthew Liu , Paul Tupper

Decision makers who receive many signals are subject to imperfect recall. This is especially important when learning from feeds that aggregate messages from many senders on social media platforms. In this paper, we study a stylized model of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Jad Sassine , M. Amin Rahimian , Dean Eckles

People are often reluctant to incorporate information produced by algorithms into their decisions, a phenomenon called ``algorithm aversion''. This paper shows how algorithm aversion arises when the choice to follow an algorithm conveys…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-02 Gregory Weitzner

Overconfidence is a prevalent problem and particularly consequential in its relation with scientific knowledge: being unaware of one`s own ignorance can affect behaviours and threaten public policies and health. We introduce both analytical…

This paper proposes a novel approach for constructing effective personalized policies when the observed data lacks counter-factual information, is biased and possesses many features. The approach is applicable in a wide variety of settings…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-11 Onur Atan , William R. Zame , Qiaojun Feng , Mihaela van der Schaar

Mixed-initiative systems allow users to interactively provide feedback to potentially improve system performance. Human feedback can correct model errors and update model parameters to dynamically adapt to changing data. Additionally, many…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-08-31 Donald R. Honeycutt , Mahsan Nourani , Eric D. Ragan

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Kentaro Hoffman , Stephen Salerno , Awan Afiaz , Jeffrey T. Leek , Tyler H. McCormick

We initiate the study of the effects of non-transparency in decision rules on individuals' ability to improve in strategic learning settings. Inspired by real-life settings, such as loan approvals and college admissions, we remove the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Yahav Bechavod , Chara Podimata , Zhiwei Steven Wu , Juba Ziani

When humans judge the affective content of texts, they also implicitly assess the correctness of such judgment, that is, their confidence. We hypothesize that people's (in)confidence that they performed well in an annotation task leads to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Enrica Troiano , Sebastian Padó , Roman Klinger

How do incentive levels affect strategic behaviour? We address this with an experiment that separately identifies own- and opponent-incentive effects in two dominance-solvable games that differ in strategic complexity. Higher own incentives…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-30 Teresa Esteban-Casanelles , Duarte Gonçalves

As natural language becomes the default interface for human-AI interaction, there is a need for LMs to appropriately communicate uncertainties in downstream applications. In this work, we investigate how LMs incorporate confidence in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Kaitlyn Zhou , Jena D. Hwang , Xiang Ren , Maarten Sap

Language models are prone to hallucination - generating text that is factually incorrect. Finetuning models on high-quality factual information can potentially reduce hallucination, but concerns remain; obtaining factual gold data can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-14 Benjamin Newman , Abhilasha Ravichander , Jaehun Jung , Rui Xin , Hamish Ivison , Yegor Kuznetsov , Pang Wei Koh , Yejin Choi

In high-stakes domains like healthcare, users often expect that sharing personal information with machine learning systems will yield tangible benefits, such as more accurate diagnoses and clearer explanations of contributing factors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Louisa Cornelis , Guillermo Bernárdez , Haewon Jeong , Nina Miolane

ML decision-aid systems are increasingly common on the web, but their successful integration relies on people trusting them appropriately: they should use the system to fill in gaps in their ability, but recognize signals that the system…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-05-25 Harini Suresh , Natalie Lao , Ilaria Liccardi

Motivated reasoning posits that people distort how they process information in the direction of beliefs they find attractive. This paper creates a novel experimental design to identify motivated reasoning from Bayesian updating when people…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-26 Michael Thaler

It is common to encounter the situation with uncertainty for decision makers (DMs) in dealing with a complex decision making problem. The existing evidence shows that people usually fear the extreme uncertainty named as the unknown. This…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-08-05 Fang Liu

We modify a canonical experimental design to identify the effectiveness of retractions. Comparing beliefs after retractions to beliefs (a) without the retracted information and (b) after equivalent new information, we find that retractions…

General Economics · Economics 2025-03-03 Duarte Gonçalves , Jonathan Libgober , Jack Willis

Unobserved confounding arises when an unmeasured feature influences both the treatment and the outcome, leading to biased causal effect estimates. This issue undermines observational studies in fields like economics, medicine, ecology or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Alexander Merkov , David Rohde , Alexandre Gilotte , Benjamin Heymann
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