Related papers: Synchronization of endogenous business cycles
We propose a novel approach to generate chaotic business cycles in a deterministic setting. Rather than producing chaos endogenously, we consider aggregate economic models with limit cycles and equilibriums, subject them to chaotic…
This paper suggests that business cycles may be a manifestation of coupled real economy and stock market dynamics and describes a mechanism that can generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles. To this end, we…
We analyze networked heterogeneous nonlinear systems, with diffusive coupling and interconnected over a generic static directed graph. Due to the network's hetereogeneity, complete synchronization is impossible, in general, but an emergent…
We investigate the emergence of synchronization in a network of coupled chaotic macroeconomic systems. Each node represents an economy characterized by three key variables savings, gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign capital inflows.…
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify…
We explore the interplay of network structure, topology, and dynamic interactions between nodes using the paradigm of distributed synchronization in a network of coupled oscillators. As the network evolves to a global steady state,…
We study a dynamical model of interconnected firms which allows for certain market imperfections and frictions, restricted here to be myopic price forecasts and slow adjustment of production. Whereas the standard rational equilibrium is…
Economic shocks due to Covid-19 were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. To study the upstream and downstream propagation of these industry-specific demand and supply shocks, we build a dynamic…
To understand how certain dynamical behaviors can or cannot persist as the underlying network grows is a problem of increasing importance in complex dynamical systems as well as sustainability science and engineering. We address the…
We introduce economic models based on Boolean Delay Equations: this formalism makes easier to take into account the complexity of the interactions between firms and is particularly appropriate for studying the propagation of an initial…
This paper investigates the endogenous formation of supply chains and its consequences for disruption propagation. In production networks where upstream risk is highly correlated and supplier relationships are not observable, the marginal…
We develop a tractable macroeconomic model that captures dynamic behaviors across multiple timescales, including business cycles. The model is anchored in a dynamic capital demand framework reflecting an interactions-based process whereby…
Two decades of studies have found significant regional differences in the timing of transitions in national business cycles and their durations. Earlier studies partly detect regional synchronization during business cycle expansions and…
Economic growth is conventionally analyzed at the national level, yet cities generate the bulk of global output. Here we construct GDP trajectories for 8,808 functional urban areas (FUAs) across 165 countries over 1993-2019 using…
Synchronization of coupled dynamical systems is a widespread phenomenon in both biological and engineered networks, and understanding this behavior is crucial for controlling such systems. Considerable research has been dedicated to…
The effects of disorder in external forces on the dynamical behavior of coupled nonlinear oscillator networks are studied. When driven synchronously, i.e., all driving forces have the same phase, the networks display chaotic dynamics. We…
Trade is a fundamental pillar of economy and a form of social organization. Its empirical characterization at the worldwide scale is represented by the World Trade Web (WTW), the network built upon the trade relationships between the…
We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static…
We study a network of coupled logistic maps whose interactions occur with a certain distribution of delay times. The local dynamics is chaotic in the absence of coupling and thus the network is a paradigm of a complex system. There are two…
Epidemic models study the spread of an undesired agent through a population, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in online social media, or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on…