Related papers: TPLVM: Portfolio Construction by Student's $t$-pro…
Estimating covariances between financial assets plays an important role in risk management. In practice, when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables, the empirical estimate is known to be very unstable. Here, we…
Gaussian process latent variable models (GPLVM) are a flexible and non-linear approach to dimensionality reduction, extending classical Gaussian processes to an unsupervised learning context. The Bayesian incarnation of the GPLVM Titsias…
The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) provides a flexible approach for non-linear dimensionality reduction that has been widely applied. However, the current approach for training GP-LVMs is based on maximum likelihood, where…
The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) is a popular approach to non-linear probabilistic dimensionality reduction. One design choice for the model is the number of latent variables. We present a spike and slab prior for the…
A diversified risk-adjusted time-series momentum (TSMOM) portfolio can deliver substantial abnormal returns and offer some degree of tail risk protection during extreme market events. The performance of existing TSMOM strategies, however,…
The Gaussian process latent variable model (GPLVM) is a popular probabilistic method used for nonlinear dimension reduction, matrix factorization, and state-space modeling. Inference for GPLVMs is computationally tractable only when the…
This paper proposes a machine learning-based framework for asset selection and portfolio construction, termed the Best-Path Algorithm Sparse Graphical Model (BPASGM). The method extends the Best-Path Algorithm (BPA) by mapping linear and…
Portfolio optimization constitutes a cornerstone of risk management by quantifying the risk-return trade-off. Since it inherently depends on accurate parameter estimation under conditions of future uncertainty, the selection of appropriate…
Gaussian process-based latent variable models are flexible and theoretically grounded tools for nonlinear dimension reduction, but generalizing to non-Gaussian data likelihoods within this nonlinear framework is statistically challenging.…
A new robust stochastic volatility (SV) model having Student-t marginals is proposed. Our process is defined through a linear normal regression model driven by a latent gamma process that controls temporal dependence. This gamma process is…
Gaussian process latent variable models (GPLVMs) are a versatile family of unsupervised learning models commonly used for dimensionality reduction. However, common challenges in modeling data with GPLVMs include inadequate kernel…
We present the Mixed Likelihood Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), capable of modeling data with attributes of different types. The standard formulation of GP-LVM assumes that each observation is drawn from a Gaussian…
The Markowitz model is still the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. In particular, when focusing on the minimum-variance portfolio, the covariance matrix or better its inverse, the so-called precision matrix, is the only input…
This paper aims at developing a new method by which to build a data-driven portfolio featuring a target risk-return. We first present a comparative study of recurrent neural network models (RNNs), including a simple RNN, long short-term…
We show how to reduce the problem of computing VaR and CVaR with Student T return distributions to evaluation of analytical functions of the moments. This allows an analysis of the risk properties of systems to be carefully attributed…
Clinical patient records are an example of high-dimensional data that is typically collected from disparate sources and comprises of multiple likelihoods with noisy as well as missing values. In this work, we propose an unsupervised…
Gaussian process model for vector-valued function has been shown to be useful for multi-output prediction. The existing method for this model is to re-formulate the matrix-variate Gaussian distribution as a multivariate normal distribution.…
This paper introduces a dynamic minimum variance portfolio (MVP) model using nonlinear volatility dynamic models, based on high-frequency financial data. Specifically, we impose an autoregressive dynamic structure on MVP processes, which…
Bayesian optimisation is an adaptive sampling strategy for constructing a Gaussian process surrogate to efficiently search for the global minimum of a black-box computational model. Gaussian processes have limited applicability in…
When we implement a portfolio selection methodology under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors' risk aversion which may be time-dependent, or even state-dependent during the investment procedure. In this…