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We establish theoretical guarantees for the expected prediction error of the exponential weighting aggregate in the case of multivariate regression that is when the label vector is multidimensional. We consider the regression model with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-26 Arnak S. Dalalyan

We consider the problem of estimating unknown parameters in stochastic differential equations driven by colored noise, which we model as a sequence of Gaussian stationary processes with decreasing correlation time. We aim to infer…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-30 Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Sebastian Reich , Andrea Zanoni

Shrinkage estimation usually reduces variance at the cost of bias. But when we care only about some parameters of a model, I show that we can reduce variance without incurring bias if we have additional information about the distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-01 Jann Spiess

Training neural network models with discrete (categorical or structured) latent variables can be computationally challenging, due to the need for marginalization over large or combinatorial sets. To circumvent this issue, one typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Gonçalo M. Correia , Vlad Niculae , Wilker Aziz , André F. T. Martins

Learning models with discrete latent variables using stochastic gradient descent remains a challenge due to the high variance of gradient estimates. Modern variance reduction techniques mostly consider categorical distributions and have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-25 Artyom Gadetsky , Kirill Struminsky , Christopher Robinson , Novi Quadrianto , Dmitry Vetrov

In a variety of problems originating in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, the loss function is defined by an expectation over a collection of random variables, which might be part of a probabilistic model or the external…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-06 John Schulman , Nicolas Heess , Theophane Weber , Pieter Abbeel

We propose policy gradient algorithms which learn risk-sensitive policies in a reinforcement learning (RL) framework. Our proposed algorithms maximize the distortion risk measure (DRM) of the cumulative reward in an episodic Markov decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Nithia Vijayan , Prashanth L. A

Uncertainty estimation methods using deep learning approaches strive against separating how uncertain the state of the world manifests to us via measurement (objective end) from the way this gets scrambled with the model specification and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-21 Edgardo Solano-Carrillo

Random sampling is an essential tool in the processing and transmission of data. It is used to summarize data too large to store or manipulate and meet resource constraints on bandwidth or battery power. Estimators that are applied to the…

Databases · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Edith Cohen , Haim Kaplan

Most zeroth-order optimization algorithms mimic a first-order algorithm but replace the gradient of the objective function with some gradient estimator that can be computed from a small number of function evaluations. This estimator is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-12 Wouter Jongeneel , Man-Chung Yue , Daniel Kuhn

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio

Consider discrete values of functions shifted by unobserved translation effects, which are independent realizations of a random variable with unknown distribution $\mu$, modeling the variability in the response of each individual. Our aim…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Ismael Castillo , Jean-Michel Loubes

Regression via classification (RvC) is a common method used for regression problems in deep learning, where the target variable belongs to a set of continuous values. By discretizing the target into a set of non-overlapping classes, it has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-11 Axel Berg , Magnus Oskarsson , Mark O'Connor

We present an algorithm for marginalising changepoints in time-series models that assume a fixed number of unknown changepoints. Our algorithm is differentiable with respect to its inputs, which are the values of latent random variables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-25 Hyoungjin Lim , Gwonsoo Che , Wonyeol Lee , Hongseok Yang

Inference on vertex-aligned graphs is of wide theoretical and practical importance.There are, however, few flexible and tractable statistical models for correlated graphs, and even fewer comprehensive approaches to parametric inference on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-01 Donniell E. Fishkind , Avanti Athreya , Lingyao Meng , Vince Lyzinski , Carey E. Priebe

Score-function based methods for policy learning, such as REINFORCE and PPO, have delivered strong results in game-playing and robotics, yet their high variance often undermines training stability. Using pathwise policy gradients, i.e.…

In this paper we consider the filtering of partially observed multi-dimensional diffusion processes that are observed regularly at discrete times. We assume that, for numerical reasons, one has to time-discretize the diffusion process which…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-21 Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Hernando Ombao

In this paper, we introduce a novel method to generate interpretable regression function estimators. The idea is based on called data-dependent coverings. The aim is to extract from the data a covering of the feature space instead of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-27 Vincent Margot , Jean-Patrick Baudry , Frédéric Guilloux , Olivier Wintenberger

We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-04 Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Michalis K. Titsias , David M. Blei

Zeroth-order (ZO, also known as derivative-free) methods, which estimate the gradient only by two function evaluations, have attracted much attention recently because of its broad applications in machine learning community. The two function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-12 Zhou Zhai , Bin Gu , Heng Huang