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Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…

We introduce the Reduced-Rank Hidden Markov Model (RR-HMM), a generalization of HMMs that can model smooth state evolution as in Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) as well as non-log-concave predictive distributions as in…

The conformational kinetics of enzymes can be reliably revealed when they are governed by Markovian dynamics. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are appropriate especially in the case of conformational states that are hardly distinguishable.…

When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be accurately approximated using co-occurrence frequencies of pairs and triples of observations by using a fast spectral method in contrast to the usual slow methods like EM or Gibbs sampling. We provide a…

State Space Models (SSMs) and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are foundational frameworks for modeling sequential data with latent variables and are widely used in signal processing, control theory, and machine learning. Despite their shared…

The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with many applications in fields such as finance, signal analysis and biology. A wide variety of literature exists for finding an ideal set of…

The ability to predict the intentions of people based solely on their visual actions is a skill only performed by humans and animals. The intelligence of current computer algorithms has not reached this level of complexity, but there are…

Data sets comprised of sequences of curves sampled at high frequencies in time are increasingly common in practice, but they can exhibit complicated dependence structures that cannot be modelled using common methods of Functional Data…

Hidden Markov Models (HMM) have been used for several years in many time series analysis or pattern recognitions tasks. HMM are often trained by means of the Baum-Welch algorithm which can be seen as a special variant of an expectation…

We consider the general problem of modeling temporal data with long-range dependencies, wherein new observations are fully or partially predictable based on temporally-distant, past observations. A sufficiently powerful temporal model…

Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…

People are living longer than ever before, and with this arises new complications and challenges for humanity. Among the most pressing of these challenges is of understanding the role of aging in the development of dementia. This paper is…

One of the central interests of animal movement ecology is relating movement characteristics to behavioural characteristics. The traditional discrete-time statistical tool for inferring unobserved behaviours from movement data is the hidden…

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…

The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…

Hidden Markov model (HMM) has been successfully used for sequential data modeling problems. In this work, we propose to power the modeling capacity of HMM by bringing in neural network based generative models. The proposed model is termed…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…

Behavior trees are rapidly attracting interest in robotics and human task-related motion tracking. However no algorithms currently exist to track or identify parameters of BTs under noisy observations. We report a new relationship between…