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Counterfactual explanations are increasingly proposed as interpretable mechanisms to achieve algorithmic recourse. However, current counterfactual techniques for time series classification are predominantly designed with static data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Emmanuel C. Chukwu , Rianne M. Schouten , Monique Tabak , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Traditional time series analysis has long relied on pattern recognition, trained on static and well-established benchmarks. However, in real-world settings -- where policies shift, human behavior adapts, and unexpected events unfold --…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Xinlei Wang , Mingtian Tan , Jing Qiu , Junhua Zhao , Jinjin Gu

When modelling time series, it is common to decompose observed variation into a "signal" process, the process of interest, and "noise", representing nuisance factors that obfuscate the signal. To separate signal from noise, assumptions must…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-11 Richard Creswell , Ben Lambert , Chon Lok Lei , Martin Robinson , David Gavaghan

Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for $\textit{in-context fine-tuning}$ of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Abhimanyu Das , Matthew Faw , Rajat Sen , Yichen Zhou

Although the notion of diagnostic problem has been extensively investigated in the context of static systems, in most practical applications the behavior of the modeled system is significantly variable during time. The goal of the paper is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Luigi Portinale

In many areas, we have well-founded insights about causal structure that would be useful to bring into our trained models while still allowing them to learn in a data-driven fashion. To achieve this, we present the new method of interchange…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-22 Atticus Geiger , Zhengxuan Wu , Hanson Lu , Josh Rozner , Elisa Kreiss , Thomas Icard , Noah D. Goodman , Christopher Potts

The Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) targets to a coordinated traffic system by applying the advanced wireless communication technologies for road traffic scheduling. Towards an accurate road traffic control, the short-term traffic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-10 Xun Zhou , Changle Li , Zhe Liu , Tom H. Luan , Zhifang Miao , Lina Zhu , Lei Xiong

Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many domains. Boosted by the advances in Deep Learning algorithms, it has for instance been used to predict wind power for eolic energy production, stock market fluctuations, or motor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Luis P. Silvestrin , Leonardos Pantiskas , Mark Hoogendoorn

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch , Efstathios Paparoditis

We present an interactive probing tool to create, modify and analyze what-if scenarios for multivariate time series models. The solution is applied to freight trading, where analysts can carry out sensitivity analysis on freight rates by…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2021-09-23 Haonan Xu , Haotian Li , Yong Wang

Millions of learners worldwide are now using intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs). At their core, ITSs rely on machine learning algorithms to track each user's changing performance level over time to provide personalized instruction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Robin Schmucker , Tom M. Mitchell

Simulation has emerged as a popular method to study the long-term societal consequences of recommender systems. This approach allows researchers to specify their theoretical model explicitly and observe the evolution of system-level…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-07-29 Eli Lucherini , Matthew Sun , Amy Winecoff , Arvind Narayanan

Temporal predictive models have the potential to improve decisions in health care, public services, and other domains, yet they often fail to effectively support decision-makers. Prior literature shows that many misalignments between model…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Venkatesh Sivaraman , Anika Vaishampayan , Xiaotong Li , Brian R Buck , Ziyong Ma , Richard D Boyce , Adam Perer

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) promise to be powerful tools for a wide range of applications. However, their internal representations and learned concepts are still not well understood. In this study, we investigate the structure and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Michał Wiliński , Mononito Goswami , Willa Potosnak , Nina Żukowska , Artur Dubrawski

Simulation can enable the study of recommender system (RS) evolution while circumventing many of the issues of empirical longitudinal studies; simulations are comparatively easier to implement, are highly controlled, and pose no ethical…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-08-02 Amy A. Winecoff , Matthew Sun , Eli Lucherini , Arvind Narayanan

Accurate time series forecasting is a highly valuable endeavour with applications across many industries. Despite recent deep learning advancements, increased model complexity, and larger model sizes, many state-of-the-art models often…

Irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) are characterized by irregular time intervals within variables and unaligned observations across variables, posing challenges in learning temporal and variable dependencies. Many existing IMTS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Boyuan Li , Yicheng Luo , Zhen Liu , Junhao Zheng , Jianming Lv , Qianli Ma

This paper proposes a new methodology in linear time-periodic (LTP) system identification. In contrast to previous methods that totally separate dynamics at different tag times for identification, the method focuses on imposing appropriate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-10 Mingzhou Yin , Andrea Iannelli , Mohammad Khosravi , Anilkumar Parsi , Roy S. Smith

Several integrate-to-threshold models with differing temporal integration mechanisms have been proposed to describe the accumulation of sensory evidence to a prescribed level prior to motor response in perceptual decision-making tasks. An…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2009-01-16 Xiang Zhou , KongFatt Wong-Lin , Philip Holmes

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are able to generate synthetic sensor signals. The training process of such a model is controlled by a loss function which measures the difference between the noise that was added in the forward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Heiko Oppel , Andreas Spilz , Michael Munz