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Multi-step forecasting is often described through a simple rule of thumb: recursive strategies are said to have high bias and low variance, while direct strategies are said to have low bias and high variance. We revisit this belief by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Riku Green , Huw Day , Zahraa S. Abdallah , Telmo M. Silva Filho

Modern neural networks (NNs) often achieve high predictive accuracy but are poorly calibrated, producing overconfident predictions even when wrong. This miscalibration poses serious challenges in applications where reliable uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Gundeep Arora , Srujana Merugu , Anoop Saladi , Rajeev Rastogi

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Parallel imaging techniques reduce magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan time but image quality degrades as the acceleration factor increases. In clinical practice, conservative acceleration factors are chosen because no mechanism exists to…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Ilias I. Giannakopoulos , Lokesh B Gautham Muthukumar , Yvonne W. Lui , Riccardo Lattanzi

Uncertainty estimation methods are expected to improve the understanding and quality of computer-assisted methods used in medical applications (e.g., neurosurgical interventions, radiotherapy planning), where automated medical image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-06-08 Alain Jungo , Raphael Meier , Ekin Ermis , Marcela Blatti-Moreno , Evelyn Herrmann , Roland Wiest , Mauricio Reyes

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Deepta Rajan

Deep neural networks are known to be data-driven and label noise can have a marked impact on model performance. Recent studies have shown great robustness to classic image recognition even under a high noisy rate. In medical applications,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Lie Ju , Xin Wang , Lin Wang , Dwarikanath Mahapatra , Xin Zhao , Mehrtash Harandi , Tom Drummond , Tongliang Liu , Zongyuan Ge

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Dan Levi , Liran Gispan , Niv Giladi , Ethan Fetaya

Computational image reconstruction algorithms generally produce a single image without any measure of uncertainty or confidence. Regularized Maximum Likelihood (RML) and feed-forward deep learning approaches for inverse problems typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 He Sun , Katherine L. Bouman

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and materials properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Albert Zhu , Simon Batzner , Albert Musaelian , Boris Kozinsky

In a data-scarce field such as healthcare, where models often deliver predictions on patients with rare conditions, the ability to measure the uncertainty of a model's prediction could potentially lead to improved effectiveness of decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-26 Lotta Meijerink , Giovanni Cinà , Michele Tonutti

While the accuracy of modern deep learning models has significantly improved in recent years, the ability of these models to generate uncertainty estimates has not progressed to the same degree. Uncertainty methods are designed to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-17 Adam M. Oberman , Chris Finlay , Alexander Iannantuono , Tiago Salvador

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Valentin Arkov

Inverse problems, such as accelerated MRI reconstruction, are ill-posed and an infinite amount of possible and plausible solutions exist. This may not only lead to uncertainty in the reconstructed image but also in downstream tasks such as…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-26 Jan Nikolas Morshuis , Matthias Hein , Christian F. Baumgartner

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Daniel Nolte , Souparno Ghosh , Ranadip Pal

Deep learning has shown tremendous progress in a wide range of digital pathology and medical image classification tasks. Its integration into safe clinical decision-making support requires robust and reliable models. However, real-world…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-19 Abdur R. Fayjie , Jutika Borah , Florencia Carbone , Jan Tack , Patrick Vandewalle

Cognitive diagnosis models have been widely used in different areas, especially intelligent education, to measure users' proficiency levels on knowledge concepts, based on which users can get personalized instructions. As the measurement is…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Fei Wang , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen , Chuanren Liu , Zhenya Huang , Jinze Wu , Shijin Wang

In medicine, both ethical and monetary costs of incorrect predictions can be significant, and the complexity of the problems often necessitates increasingly complex models. Recent work has shown that changing just the random seed is enough…

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser