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We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…

This paper studies a class of multivariate threshold autoregressive models, known as censored and kinked structural vector autoregressions (CKSVAR), which are notably able to accommodate series that are subject to occasionally binding…

This paper proposes a new Bayesian machine learning model that can be applied to large datasets arising in macroeconomics. Our framework sums over many simple two-component location mixtures. The transition between components is determined…

We discuss Bayesian analysis of multivariate time series with dynamic factor models that exploit time-adaptive sparsity in model parametrizations via the latent threshold approach. One central focus is on the transfer responses of multiple…

In multivariate time series analysis, understanding the underlying causal relationships among variables is often of interest for various applications. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework for representing causal…

We study the problem of modelling high-dimensional, heavy-tailed time series data via a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, which simultaneously accounts for pervasive co-movements of the variables by a handful of factors, as…

We propose a new volatility model based on two stylized facts of the volatility in the stock market: clustering and leverage effect. We calibrate our model parameters, in the leading order, with 77 years Dow Jones Industrial Average data.…

Many nonlinear time series models have been proposed in the last decades. Among them, the models with regime switchings provide a class of versatile and interpretable models which have received a particular attention in the literature. In…

Modeling high-dimensional time series with simple structures is a challenging problem. This paper proposes a network double autoregression (NDAR) model, which combines the advantages of network structure and the double autoregression (DAR)…

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions commonly assume that time-variation in the coefficients is determined by a simple stochastic process such as a random walk. While such models are capable of capturing a wide range of dynamic…

We propose a new, flexible model for inference of the effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome observed over subsequent time periods. The model allows to seperate association due to endogeneity of treatment selection from…

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

Transformed Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (TGARMA) models were recently proposed to deal with non-additivity, non-normality and heteroscedasticity in real time series data. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is proposed for…

Under a high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we propose a way of efficiently estimating both the stationary graph structure between the nodal time series and their temporal dynamics. The framework is then used to make…

It is an important task to model realized volatilities for high-frequency data in finance and economics and, as arguably the most popular model, the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model has dominated the applications in this area.…

Univariate and multivariate general linear regression models, subject to linear inequality constraints, arise in many scientific applications. The linear inequality restrictions on model parameters are often available from phenomenological…

Conditional auto-regressive (CAR) distributions are widely used to induce spatial dependence in the geographic analysis of areal data. These distributions establish multivariate dependence networks by defining conditional relationships…

A comprehensive methodology for inference in vector autoregressions (VARs) using sign and other structural restrictions is developed. The reduced-form VAR disturbances are driven by a few common factors and structural identification…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…