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We propose a double robust Bayesian inference procedure on the average treatment effect (ATE) under unconfoundedness. For our new Bayesian approach, we first adjust the prior distributions of the conditional mean functions, and then correct…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-26 Christoph Breunig , Ruixuan Liu , Zhengfei Yu

Recently, causal inference under interference has gained increasing attention in the literature. In this paper, we focus on randomized designs for estimating the total treatment effect (TTE), defined as the average difference in potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 Changhao Shi , Haoyu Yang , Yichen Qin , Yang Li

Recent FDA guidance on adaptive clinical trial designs defines bias as "a systematic tendency for the estimate of treatment effect to deviate from its true value", and states that it is desirable to obtain and report estimates of treatment…

In causal inference, a fundamental task is to estimate the effect resulting from a specific treatment, which is often handled with inverse probability weighting. Despite an abundance of attention to the advancement of this task, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Kuan-Hsun Wu

This paper considers the problem of design-based inference for the average treatment effect in finely stratified experiments. Here, by "design-based'' we mean that the only source of uncertainty stems from the randomness in treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-08 Yuehao Bai , Xun Huang , Joseph P. Romano , Azeem M. Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

There has been a recent surge in statistical methods for handling the lack of adequate positivity when using inverse probability weights (IPW). However, these nascent developments have raised a number of questions. Thus, we demonstrate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-05 Roland A. Matsouaka , Yi Liu , Yunji Zhou

Online A/B tests have become increasingly popular and important for social platforms. However, accurately estimating the global average treatment effect (GATE) has proven to be challenging due to network interference, which violates the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 Qianyi Chen , Bo Li , Lu Deng , Yong Wang

Adaptive radiation therapy (ART) seeks to maintain accurate dose delivery by monitoring anatomical changes during treatment and modifying plans accordingly, yet commonly used approaches for estimating cumulative dose rely on heuristic,…

Medical Physics · Physics 2026-03-03 Robert Boyd , Wolfgang A. Tomé

The accelerated failure time (AFT) model is widely used to analyze relationships between variables in the presence of censored observations. However, this model relies on some assumptions such as the error distribution, which can lead to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Sangkon Oh , Hyunjae Lee , Sangwook Kang , Byungtae Seo

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects, yet network interference challenges the validity of traditional estimators by violating the stable unit treatment value assumption and introducing bias. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-02 Xin Lu , Hongzi Li , Hanzhong Liu

While randomized trials may be the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of the treatment intervention, in some special circumstances, single-arm clinical trials utilizing external control may be considered. The causal treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Huan Wang , Fei Wu , Yeh-Fong Chen

Incrementality experiments compare customers exposed to a marketing action designed to increase sales to those randomly assigned to a control group. These experiments suffer from noisy responses which make precise estimation of the average…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-11 Ron Berman , Elea McDonnell Feit

This paper studies inference in two-stage randomized experiments under covariate-adaptive randomization. In the initial stage of this experimental design, clusters (e.g., households, schools, or graph partitions) are stratified and randomly…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-16 Jizhou Liu

In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), treatment is often assigned by stratified randomization. I show that among all stratified randomization schemes which treat all units with probability one half, a certain matched-pair design achieves…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-17 Yuehao Bai

In modern statistics, interests shift from pursuing the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator to reducing mean squared error (MSE) or residual squared error. Shrinkage based estimation and regression methods offer better prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-25 Tianyu Zhan , Haoda Fu , Jian Kang

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-18 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

This paper considers the estimation of treatment effects in randomized experiments with complex experimental designs, including cases with interference between units. We develop a design-based estimation theory for arbitrary experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-27 Haoge Chang

There is growing interest in exploring causal effects in target populations via data combination. However, most approaches are tailored to specific settings and lack comprehensive comparative analyses. In this article, we focus on a typical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-17 Peng Wu , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

When estimating the treatment effect in an observational study, we use a semiparametric locally efficient dimension reduction approach to assess both the treatment assignment mechanism and the average responses in both treated and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-26 Trinetri Ghosh , Yanyuan Ma , Xavier de Luna