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Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Teemu Härkönen , Simo Särkkä

In industrial applications it is quite common to use stochastic volatility models driven by semi-martingale Markov volatility processes. However, in order to fit exactly market volatilities, these models are usually extended by adding a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-22 Enrico Dall'Acqua , Riccardo Longoni , Andrea Pallavicini

In this paper, we analyze the robustness and sensitivity of various continuous-time rough Volterra stochastic volatility models in relation to the process of market calibration. Model robustness is examined from two perspectives: the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-05 Jan Matas , Jan Pospíšil

The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-13 Nicola F. Zaugg , Lech A. Grzelak

We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-07 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Massimiliano Marcellino , Nico Petz

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-24 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Zoubin Ghahramani

In recent years, there has been a substantive interest in rough volatility models. In this class of models, the local behavior of stochastic volatility is much more irregular than semimartingales and resembles that of a fractional Brownian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-17 Carsten Chong , Marc Hoffmann , Yanghui Liu , Mathieu Rosenbaum , Grégoire Szymanski

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yudong Feng , Ashis Gangopadhyay

It has been recently shown that spot volatilities can be very well modeled by rough stochastic volatility type dynamics. In such models, the log-volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter smaller than 1/2. This…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-10 Giulia Livieri , Saad Mouti , Andrea Pallavicini , Mathieu Rosenbaum

We provide a unified treatment of pathwise Large and Moderate deviations principles for a general class of multidimensional stochastic Volterra equations with singular kernels, not necessarily of convolution form. Our methodology is based…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-15 Antoine Jacquier , Alexandre Pannier

In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-27 Camilla Damian , Rüdiger Frey

This paper offers a new approach for estimating and forecasting the volatility of financial time series. No assumption is made about the parametric form of the processes. On the contrary, we only suppose that the volatility can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Danilo Mercurio , Vladimir Spokoiny

We introduce a Hawkes-like process and study its scaling limit as the system becomes increasingly endogenous. We derive functional limit theorems for intensity and fluctuations. Then, we introduce a high-frequency model for a price of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-12 Łukasz Treszczotko

This work develops change-point methods for statistics of high-frequency data. The main interest is in the volatility of an It\^{o} semi-martingale, the latter being discretely observed over a fixed time horizon. We construct a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-13 Markus Bibinger , Moritz Jirak , Mathias Vetter

This paper presents a study using the Bayesian approach in stochastic volatility models for modeling financial time series, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods (HMC). We propose the use of other distributions for the errors in the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-07 David S. Dias , Ricardo S. Ehlers

We consider a nonlinear filtering problem for a signal-observation system driven by a Volterra-type Gaussian rough path, whose sample paths may exhibit greater roughness than those of Brownian motion. The observation process includes a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Thomas Cass , Dan Crisan , Andrea Iannucci

Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-01-12 Abel Rodriguez , Henryk Gzyl , German Molina , Enrique ter Horst

We consider a continuous-time stochastic volatility model. The model contains a stationary volatility process, the multivariate density of the finite dimensional distributions of which we aim to estimate. We assume that we observe the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-08 Bert van Es , Peter Spreij

In stochastic Volterra rough volatility models, the volatility follows a truncated Brownian semi-stationary process with stochastic vol-of-vol. Recently, efficient VIX pricing Monte Carlo methods have been proposed for the case where the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-06 Henrique Guerreiro , João Guerra

We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-19 Michelle Anzarut , Ramses H. Mena