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In the advent of the novel coronavirus epidemic since December 2019, governments and authorities have been struggling to make critical decisions under high uncertainty at their best efforts. Composite Monte-Carlo (CMC) simulation is a…
Background: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic dilated rapidly throughout India. To end the global COVID-19 pandemic major behavioral, social distancing, contact tracing, and state interventions has been undertaken to reduce the outbreak and…
After the detection of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in late December, the cases of Covid-19 have spiralled out around the…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that was first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has since spread around the globe, claiming more than 69,000 lives by the time this protocol…
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation…
The mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is a fundamental research field for the planning of strategies to contain outbreaks. The models associated with this field of study usually have exponential prior assumptions in the number of…
The worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, the disease has spread worldwide. As it currently spreading in the United States, policy makers, public health officials and citizens are…
Understanding how interurban movements can modify the spatial distribution of the population is important for transport planning but is also a fundamental ingredient for epidemic modeling. We focus here on vacation trips (for all…
We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…
Severe infectious diseases such as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pose a huge threat to public health. Stringent control measures, such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, while having significant effects, also bring huge economic…
On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…
We develop a simple 3-dimensional iterative map model to forecast the global spread of the coronavirus disease. Our model contains at most two fitting parameters, which we determine from the data supplied by the world health organisation…
Emerging infectious diseases are existential threats to human health and global stability. The recent outbreaks of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 have rapidly formed a global pandemic, causing hundreds of thousands of infections and huge…
Background: Following the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in early 2020, municipalities, regional governments and policymakers worldwide had to plan their Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) amidst a scenario of great uncertainty.…
COVID 19 is an acute disease that started spreading throughout the world, beginning in December 2019. It has spread worldwide and has affected more than 7 million people, and 200 thousand people have died due to this infection as of Oct…
The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), starting in late 2019, has determined in Italy several interventions aimed to prevent saturation of the health system. We have examined the effects of such measures by proposing a mean-field model…
In this paper, we propose a machine learning technics and SIR models (deterministic and stochastic cases) with numerical approximations to predict the number of cases infected with the COVID-19, for both in few days and the following three…
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which emerged in late 2019, has since spread around the world and infected hundreds of millions of people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While this viral species was unknown prior to January…
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious respiratory disease that was first discovered in late December 2019, in Wuhan, China, and then spread worldwide causing a lot of panic and death. Users of social networking sites such as…
The ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic has been announced a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, and the Govt. of India has declared a nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020, to prevent community transmission of…