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Multiplicative error models (MEMs) are commonly used for real-valued time series, but they cannot be applied to discrete-valued count time series as the involved multiplication would not preserve the integer nature of the data. Thus, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-28 Christian H. Weiß , Fukang Zhu

We introduce contextual behavioural metrics (CBMs) as a novel way of measuring the discrepancy in behaviour between processes, taking into account both quantitative aspects and contextual information. This way, process distances by…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Ugo Dal Lago , Maurizio Murgia

While significant progress has been made in specifying neural networks capable of representing uncertainty, deep networks still often suffer from overconfidence and misaligned predictive distributions. Existing approaches for measuring this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Spencer Young , Riley Sinema , Cole Edgren , Andrew Hall , Nathan Dong , Porter Jenkins

We study nonparametric estimation for the partially conditional average treatment effect, defined as the treatment effect function over an interested subset of confounders. We propose a hybrid kernel weighting estimator where the weights…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-08 Jiayi Wang , Raymond K. W. Wong , Shu Yang , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

We consider autocovariance operators of a stationary stochastic process on a Polish space that is embedded into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We investigate how empirical estimates of these operators converge along realizations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-08 Mattes Mollenhauer , Stefan Klus , Christof Schütte , Péter Koltai

In this paper we propose and study a class of simple, nonparametric, yet interpretable measures of association between two random variables $X$ and $Y$ taking values in general topological spaces. These nonparametric measures -- defined…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-09 Nabarun Deb , Promit Ghosal , Bodhisattva Sen

In this paper, an adaptive non-parametric method is proposed to estimate the scalar-valued nonlinear function that appears in uncertain systems governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). By employing an infinite-dimensional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-15 Jia Guo , Sai Tej Paruchuri , Andrew J. Kurdila

We develop inference and testing procedures for conditional dispersion and skewness in a nonparametric regression setup based on statistical depth functions. The methods developed can be applied in situations, where the response is…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-17 Joydeep Chowdhury , Probal Chaudhuri

Regularized kernel methods such as, e.g., support vector machines and least-squares support vector regression constitute an important class of standard learning algorithms in machine learning. Theoretical investigations concerning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-03-21 Robert Hable

Development of metrics for structural data-generating mechanisms is fundamental in machine learning and the related fields. In this paper, we give a general framework to construct metrics on random nonlinear dynamical systems, defined with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Isao Ishikawa , Akinori Tanaka , Masahiro Ikeda , Yoshinobu Kawahara

Tests of conditional independence (CI) underpin a number of important problems in machine learning and statistics, from causal discovery to evaluation of predictor fairness and out-of-distribution robustness. Shah and Peters (2020) showed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-17 Zheng He , Roman Pogodin , Yazhe Li , Namrata Deka , Arthur Gretton , Danica J. Sutherland

A long-standing problem in the construction of asymptotically correct confidence bands for a regression function $m(x)=E[Y|X=x]$, where $Y$ is the response variable influenced by the covariate $X$, involves the situation where $Y$ values…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-10 Ali Al-Sharadqah , Majid Mojirsheibani

We consider the problem of clustering a sample of probability distributions from a random distribution on $\mathbb R^p$. Our proposed partitioning method makes use of a symmetric, positive-definite kernel $k$ and its associated reproducing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Amparo Baíllo , Jose R. Berrendero , Martín Sánchez-Signorini

For a class of one-dimensional determinantal point processes including those induced by orthogonal projections with integrable kernels satisfying a growth condition, it is proved that their conditional measures, with respect to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-05 Alexander I. Bufetov

Kernel methods, being supported by a well-developed theory and coming with efficient algorithms, are among the most popular and successful machine learning techniques. From a mathematical point of view, these methods rest on the concept of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-20 Christian Fiedler , Michael Herty , Michael Rom , Chiara Segala , Sebastian Trimpe

The problem of establishing out-of-sample bounds for the values of an unkonwn ground-truth function is considered. Kernels and their associated Hilbert spaces are the main formalism employed herein along with an observational model where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-13 Paul Scharnhorst , Emilio T. Maddalena , Yuning Jiang , Colin N. Jones

Do two data samples come from different distributions? Recent studies of this fundamental problem focused on embedding probability distributions into sufficiently rich characteristic Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs), to compare…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-05-03 Somayeh Danafar , Paola M. V. Rancoita , Tobias Glasmachers , Kevin Whittingstall , Juergen Schmidhuber

Measuring and testing dependence between complex objects is of great importance in modern statistics. Most existing work relied on the distance between random variables, which inevitably required the moment conditions to guarantee the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-19 Yilin Zhang , Songshan Yang

We present a data-driven algorithm for efficiently computing stochastic control policies for general joint chance constrained optimal control problems. Our approach leverages the theory of kernel distribution embeddings, which allows…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-10 Adam J. Thorpe , Thomas Lew , Meeko M. K. Oishi , Marco Pavone

Kernel density estimation on a finite interval poses an outstanding challenge because of the well-recognized bias at the boundaries of the interval. Motivated by an application in cancer research, we consider a boundary constraint linking…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Matthew J. Colbrook , Zdravko I. Botev , Karsten Kuritz , Shev MacNamara