Related papers: Markov Switching
In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…
In this research the technology of complex Markov chains is applied to predict financial time series. The main distinction of complex or high-order Markov Chains and simple first-order ones is the existing of aftereffect or memory. The…
We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…
In this work, a versatile mathematical framework for multi-state probabilistic modeling of Resistive Switching (RS) devices is proposed for the first time. The mathematical formulation of memristor and Markov jump processes are combined…
In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident injury severities. These models assume Markov switching in time between two unobserved states of roadway safety. The states…
Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…
In this paper, we equip the conventional discrete-time queueing network with a Markovian input process, that, in addition to the usual short-term stochastics, governs the mid- to long-term behavior of the links between the network nodes.…
Markov models are widely used to describe processes of stochastic dynamics. Here, we show that Markov models are a natural consequence of the dynamical principle of Maximum Caliber. First, we show that when there are different possible…
This paper presents a simple algorithm to check whether reachability probabilities in parametric Markov chains are monotonic in (some of) the parameters. The idea is to construct - only using the graph structure of the Markov chain and…
Markovian-regime-switching (MRS) models are commonly used for modelling economic time series, including electricity prices where independent regime models are used, since they can more accurately and succinctly capture electricity price…
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the…
This paper presents a new parameter estimation algorithm for the adaptive control of a class of time-varying plants. The main feature of this algorithm is a matrix of time-varying learning rates, which enables parameter estimation error…
We study individual-based dynamics in finite populations, subject to randomly switching environmental conditions. These are inspired by models in which genes transition between on and off states, regulating underlying protein dynamics.…
We propose a novel Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects among alternative patterns of exclusion restrictions to identify structural shocks…
Transition Path Theory (TPT) provides a rigorous statistical characterization of the ensemble of trajectories connecting directly, i.e., without detours, two disconnected (sets of) states in a Markov chain, a stochastic process that…
We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…
Markov chains are a class of probabilistic models that have achieved widespread application in the quantitative sciences. This is in part due to their versatility, but is compounded by the ease with which they can be probed analytically.…
We present an investigation of stochastic evolution in which a family of evolution equations in $L^1$ are driven by continuous-time Markov processes. These are examples of so-called piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) on the…
Markov state modeling has gained popularity in various scientific fields since it reduces complex time-series data sets into transitions between a few states. Yet common Markov state modeling frameworks assume a single Markov chain…
Financial markets tend to switch between various market regimes over time, making stationarity-based models unsustainable. We construct a regime-switching model independent of asset classes for risk-adjusted return predictions based on…