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We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Jiayi Guo , Zijun Gao

Background: Sequential positivity is often a necessary assumption for drawing causal inferences, such as through marginal structural modeling. Unfortunately, verification of this assumption can be challenging because it usually relies on…

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials…

In observational studies, confounding variables affect both treatment and outcome. Moreover, instrumental variables also influence the treatment assignment mechanism. This situation sets the study apart from a standard randomized controlled…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-18 Atomsa Gemechu Abdisa , Yingchun Zhou , Yuqi Qiu

We introduce a framework for online changepoint detection and simultaneous model learning which is applicable to highly parametrized models, such as deep neural networks. It is based on detecting changepoints across time by sequentially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-08 Michalis K. Titsias , Jakub Sygnowski , Yutian Chen

Randomized experiments ensure robust causal inference that are critical to effective learning analytics research and practice. However, traditional randomized experiments, like A/B tests, are limiting in large scale digital learning…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-04 Timothy NeCamp , Josh Gardner , Christopher Brooks

Online and AI-based symptom checkers are applications that assist medical laypeople in diagnosing their symptoms and determining which course of action to take. When evaluating these tools, previous studies primarily used an approach…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Marvin Kopka , Markus A. Feufel

This study proposes a novel framework based on the RuleFit method to estimate Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) in a randomized clinical trial. To achieve this, we adopted S-learner of the metaalgorithm for our proposed framework. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-28 Mayu Hiraishi , Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa , Toshio Shimokawa

The Stratified Bootstrap Test (SBT) provides a nonparametric, resampling-based framework for assessing the stability of group-specific ranking patterns in multivariate survey or rating data. By repeatedly resampling observations and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Ehsan Mohammadi , Fanghua Chen , Yizhou Cai , Yun Yang , Ting Fung Ma , Lu Zhou

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become an increasingly popular task in various fields, as it helps design personalized advertisements in e-commerce or targeted treatment in biomedical studies. However, most of the existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-12 Waverly Wei , Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects have been emphasized in recent policy evaluation literature. In this paper, we extend Lu and White (2014)'s testing method for unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects by developing nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-22 YuChin Hsu , TaCheng Huang , Haiqing Xu

While trajectory prediction plays a critical role in enabling safe and effective path-planning in automated vehicles, standardized practices for evaluating such models remain underdeveloped. Recent efforts have aimed to unify dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Julian F. Schumann , Anna Mészáros , Jens Kober , Arkady Zgonnikov

Randomized clinical trials are often designed to assess whether a test treatment prolongs survival relative to a control treatment. Increased patient heterogeneity, while desirable for generalizability of results, can weaken the ability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-30 Devan V. Mehrotra , Rachel Marceau West

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

We propose an alternative framework to existing setups for controlling false alarms when multiple A/B tests are run over time. This setup arises in many practical applications, e.g. when pharmaceutical companies test new treatment options…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-21 Fanny Yang , Aaditya Ramdas , Kevin Jamieson , Martin J. Wainwright

Experimental testing is vital in the optimization of web applications, and as such A/B testing has been widely adopted as a methodology for determining optimal content for many web applications. While some testing platforms provide…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-04 Ian E. Fellows

Unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects have been emphasized in the recent policy evaluation literature (see e.g., Heckman and Vytlacil, 2005). This paper proposes a nonparametric test for unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects in a…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-17 Yu-Chin Hsu , Ta-Cheng Huang , Haiqing Xu

Multiple hypothesis testing, a situation when we wish to consider many hypotheses, is a core problem in statistical inference that arises in almost every scientific field. In this setting, controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-19 Shiyun Chen , Shiva Kasiviswanathan

The primary benefit of identifying a valid surrogate marker is the ability to use it in a future trial to test for a treatment effect with shorter follow-up time or less cost. However, previous work has demonstrated potential heterogeneity…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-20 Layla Parast , Tianxi Cai , Lu Tian

A/B testing, also known as controlled experiment, bucket testing or splitting testing, has been widely used for evaluating a new feature, service or product in the data-driven decision processes of online websites. The goal of A/B testing…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-26 Bai Jiang , Xiaolin Shi , Hongwei Shang , Zhigeng Geng , Alyssa Glass
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