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This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-21 Filip Tronarp , Simo Särkkä

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Xuhui Fan , Edwin V. Bonilla , Terence J. O'Kane , Scott A. Sisson

Classical discriminant analysis assumes identically distributed training data, yet in many applications observations are collected over time and the class-conditional distributions drift. This population drift renders stationary classifiers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Shuilian Xie , Mahdi Imani , Edward R. Dougherty , Ulisses M. Braga-Neto

Recently, a novel linear model predictive control algorithm based on a physics-informed Gaussian Process has been introduced, whose realizations strictly follow a system of underlying linear ordinary differential equations with constant…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-01 Adrian Lepp , Jörn Tebbe , Andreas Besginow

In this work, we present methods for state estimation in continuous-discrete nonlinear systems involving stochastic differential equations. We present the extended Kalman filter, the unscented Kalman filter, the ensemble Kalman filter, and…

State estimation of dynamical systems is crucial for providing new decision-making and system automation information in different applications. However, the assumptions on the standard computational models for sensor measurements can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-25 Aamir Hussain Chughtai , Arslan Majal , Muhammad Tahir , Momin Uppal

In this work, we consider the problem of steering the first two moments of the uncertain state of an unknown discrete-time stochastic nonlinear system to a given terminal distribution in finite time. Toward that goal, first, a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-05 Alexandros Tsolovikos , Efstathios Bakolas

A novel approach to the problem of partial state estimation of nonlinear systems is proposed. The main idea is to translate the state estimation problem into one of estimation of constant, unknown parameters related to the systems initial…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-04-08 Ortega Romeo , Bobtsov Alexey , Pyrkin Anton , Aranovskiy Stanislav

The problem of state estimation for unobservable distribution systems is considered. A deep learning approach to Bayesian state estimation is proposed for real-time applications. The proposed technique consists of distribution learning of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-26 Kursat Rasim Mestav , Jaime Luengo-Rozas , Lang Tong

This work addresses the problem of state estimation in multivariable dynamic systems with quantized outputs, a common scenario in applications involving low-resolution sensors or communication constraints. A novel method is proposed to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-10 Angel L. Cedeño , Rodrigo A. González , Boris I. Godoy , Juan C. Agüero

We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-05 Michael Busch , Jeff Moehlis

State estimation incorporates the feedback in optimization based advanced process control systems and is very important for the performance of model predictive control. We describe the extended Kalman filter, the unscented Kalman filter,…

We propose a new variational inference algorithm for learning in Gaussian Process State-Space Models (GPSSMs). Our algorithm enables learning of unstable and partially observable systems, where previous algorithms fail. Our main algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Silvan Melchior , Sebastian Curi , Felix Berkenkamp , Andreas Krause

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-14 Ramis Khabibullin , Sergei Seleznev

We consider approximate maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models. We discuss both direct optimization of the likelihood and expectation--maximization (EM). For EM, we also give closed-form expressions for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-03 Juho Kokkala , Arno Solin , Simo Särkkä

We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-24 Anurag Ghosh , Soumalya Mukhopadhyay , Sandipan Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The problem of state estimation has a long history with many successful algorithms that allow analytical derivation or approximation of posterior filtering distribution given the noisy observations. This report tries to conclude previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-06 Nikita Kostin

We present a method of parameter estimation for large class of nonlinear systems, namely those in which the state consists of output derivatives and the flow is linear in the parameter. The method, which solves for the unknown parameter by…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-16 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

In this paper, we present a novel optimization algorithm designed specifically for estimating state-space models to deal with heavy-tailed measurement noise and constraints. Our algorithm addresses two significant limitations found in…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-19 Yifan Yu , Shengjie Xiu , Daniel P. Palomar

In this paper, we consider queueing systems where the dynamics are non-stationary and state-dependent. For performance analysis of these systems, fluid and diffusion models have been typically used. Although they are proven to be…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-08 Young Myoung Ko , Natarajan Gautam