Related papers: Explicit Mean-Square Error Bounds for Monte-Carlo …
Computing smoothing distributions, the distributions of one or more states conditional on past, present, and future observations is a recurring problem when operating on general hidden Markov models. The aim of this paper is to provide a…
Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC…
Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the…
The practicality of the stochastic network calculus (SNC) is often questioned on grounds of potential looseness of its performance bounds. In this paper it is uncovered that for bursty arrival processes (specifically Markov-Modulated On-Off…
Least squares Monte Carlo methods are a popular numerical approximation method for solving stochastic control problems. Based on dynamic programming, their key feature is the approximation of the conditional expectation of future rewards by…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
This paper considers the problem of optimizing the average tracking error for an elliptic partial differential equation with an uncertain lognormal diffusion coefficient. In particular, the application of the multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo…
In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the autocovariance sequence resulting from a reversible Markov chain. A motivating application for studying this problem is the estimation of the asymptotic variance in central limit…
An algorithm is proposed, analyzed, and tested experimentally for solving stochastic optimization problems in which the decision variables are constrained to satisfy equations defined by deterministic, smooth, and nonlinear functions. It is…
Independent sampling of orthogonal polynomial bases via Monte Carlo is of interest for uncertainty quantification of models, using Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions. It is known that bounding the spectral radius of a random matrix consisting…
Markov chain methods are remarkably successful in computational physics, machine learning, and combinatorial optimization. The cost of such methods often reduces to the mixing time, i.e., the time required to reach the steady state of the…
Stochastic approximation is a framework unifying many random iterative algorithms occurring in a diverse range of applications. The stability of the process is often difficult to verify in practical applications and the process may even be…
We provide explicit nonasymptotic estimates for the rate of convergence of empirical means of Markov chains, together with a Gaussian or exponential control on the deviations of empirical means. These estimates hold under a "positive…
We investigate lower bounds on the subgeometric convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo under any adaptation strategy. In particular, we prove general lower bounds in total variation and on the weak convergence rate under general…
Inexact Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods rely on Markov chains that do not exactly preserve the target distribution. Examples include the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) and unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (uHMC). This paper…
We consider Metropolis Hastings MCMC in cases where the log of the ratio of target distributions is replaced by an estimator. The estimator is based on m samples from an independent online Monte Carlo simulation. Under some conditions on…
In this paper, we study error bounds for {\em Bayesian quadrature} (BQ), with an emphasis on noisy settings, randomized algorithms, and average-case performance measures. We seek to approximate the integral of functions in a {\em…
Stochastic PDE eigenvalue problems often arise in the field of uncertainty quantification, whereby one seeks to quantify the uncertainty in an eigenvalue, or its eigenfunction. In this paper we present an efficient multilevel quasi-Monte…
We deal with the problem of the mean square optimal estimation of linear transformations of the unobserved values of a continuous time stochastic process with periodically correlated increments. Estimates are based on observations of the…
We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…