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This paper proposes semi-instrumental variables (semi-IVs) as an alternative to instrumental variables (IVs) to identify the causal effect of a binary (or discrete) endogenous treatment. A semi-IV is a less restrictive form of instrument:…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-23 Christophe Bruneel-Zupanc

Estimation and evaluation of individualized treatment rules have been studied extensively, but real-world treatment resource constraints have received limited attention in existing methods. We investigate a setting in which treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

An optimal individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a function that takes a patient's characteristics, such as demographics, biomarkers, and treatment history, and outputs a treatment that is expected to give the best outcome for that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Augustine Wigle , Erica E. M. Moodie

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

The method of instrumental variables (IV) provides a framework to study causal effects in both randomized experiments with noncompliance and in observational studies where natural circumstances produce as-if random nudges to accept…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-07 Hyunseung Kang , Laura Peck , Luke Keele

The instrumental variable (IV) design is a common approach to address hidden confounding bias. For validity, an IV must impact the outcome only through its association with the treatment. In addition, IV identification has required a…

Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects (PRTEs) are generally not point-identified under standard Instrumental Variable (IV) assumptions when the instrument generates limited support in treatment propensity. We show that PRTE partial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) aim to optimize healthcare by tailoring treatment decisions to patient-specific characteristics. Existing methods typically rely on either interpretable but inflexible models or highly flexible…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Yasin Khadem Charvadeh , Katherine S. Panageas , Yuan Chen

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) have gained significant attention due to their wide-ranging applications in fields such as precision medicine, ridesharing, and advertising recommendations. However, when ITRs are influenced by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-01 Wenhai Cui , Xiaoting Ji , Wen Su , Xiaodong Yan , Xingqiu Zhao

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Danielle Tsao , Krikamol Muandet , Frederick Eberhardt , Emilija Perković

Conventional treatment policies map patient covariates to a single recommended intervention in order to maximize expected clinical outcomes. Although a rich body of causal inference methods has been developed to estimate such policies,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Laura Fuentes-Vicente , Mathieu Even , Gaëlle Dormion , Antoine Chambaz , Uri Shalit , Julie Josse

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTR) are a statistical paradigm in precision medicine which aim to optimize patient outcomes by individualizing treatments. At its simplest, a DTR may require only a single decision to be made; this special case…

Applications · Statistics 2021-09-06 Larry Dong , Erica E. M. Moodie , Laura Villain , Rodolphe Thiébaut

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) have been widely applied in many fields such as precision medicine and personalized marketing. Beyond the extensive studies on ITR for binary or multiple treatments, there is considerable interest in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-08 Qi Xu , Xiaoke Cao , Geping Chen , Hanqi Zeng , Haoda Fu , Annie Qu

A major challenge in instrumental variables (IV) analysis is to find instruments that are valid, or have no direct effect on the outcome and are ignorable. Typically one is unsure whether all of the putative IVs are in fact valid. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-10 Zijian Guo , Hyunseung Kang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

We discuss the fundamental issue of identification in linear instrumental variable (IV) models with unknown IV validity. With the assumption of the "sparsest rule", which is equivalent to the plurality rule but becomes operational in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-06 Yiqi Lin , Frank Windmeijer , Xinyuan Song , Qingliang Fan

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

Estimating individualized treatment rules (ITRs) is fundamental to precision medicine, where the goal is to tailor treatment decisions to individual patient characteristics. While numerous methods have been developed for ITR estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Eun Jeong Oh , Min Qian

The field of precision medicine aims to tailor treatment based on patient-specific factors in a reproducible way. To this end, estimating an optimal individualized treatment regime (ITR) that recommends treatment decisions based on patient…

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) consist of a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of intervention, that finds effective treatments for individual patients according to patient information history. DTRs can be estimated from models…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-07 Zeyu Bian , Erica EM Moodie , Susan M Shortreed , Sahir Bhatnagar

In many situations, researchers are interested in identifying dynamic effects of an irreversible treatment with a time-invariant binary instrumental variable (IV). For example, in evaluations of dynamic effects of training programs with a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Bruno Ferman , Otávio Tecchio