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Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Optimization problems with uncertain black-box constraints, modeled by warped Gaussian processes, have recently been considered in the Bayesian optimization setting. This work introduces a new class of constraints in which the same…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Johannes Wiebe , Inês Cecílio , Jonathan Dunlop , Ruth Misener

This paper proposes a new class of real-time optimization schemes to overcome system-model mismatch of uncertain processes. This work's novelty lies in integrating derivative-free optimization schemes and multi-fidelity Gaussian processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Panagiotis Petsagkourakis , Benoit Chachuat , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio-Chanona

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

We consider an unknown multivariate function representing a system-such as a complex numerical simulator-taking both deterministic and uncertain inputs. Our objective is to estimate the set of deterministic inputs leading to outputs whose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-09 Romain Ait Abdelmalek-Lomenech , Julien Bect , Vincent Chabridon , Emmanuel Vazquez

Bayesian optimization offers a flexible framework to optimize an objective function that is expensive to be evaluated. A Bayesian optimizer iteratively queries the function values on its carefully selected points. Subsequently, it makes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Yang Li , Yaqiang Yao

We address uncertainty quantification for Gaussian processes (GPs) under misspecified priors, with an eye towards Bayesian Optimization (BO). GPs are widely used in BO because they easily enable exploration based on posterior uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-03 Willie Neiswanger , Aaditya Ramdas

Recent work on Bayesian optimization has shown its effectiveness in global optimization of difficult black-box objective functions. Many real-world optimization problems of interest also have constraints which are unknown a priori. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-25 Michael A. Gelbart , Jasper Snoek , Ryan P. Adams

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient method for solving expensive, black-box optimization problems. Stochastic programming concerns optimization under uncertainty where, typically, average performance is the quantity of interest. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-19 Jack M. Buckingham , Ivo Couckuyt , Juergen Branke

Bayesian Optimization is the state of the art technique for the optimization of black boxes, i.e., functions where we do not have access to their analytical expression nor its gradients, they are expensive to evaluate and its evaluation is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-13 Eduardo C. Garrido Merchán , Luis C. Jariego Pérez

Local optimization presents a promising approach to expensive, high-dimensional black-box optimization by sidestepping the need to globally explore the search space. For objective functions whose gradient cannot be evaluated directly,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Quan Nguyen , Kaiwen Wu , Jacob R. Gardner , Roman Garnett

The Bayesian inversion method demonstrates significant potential for solving inverse problems, enabling both point estimation and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation may become unstable…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Ruibiao Song , Liying Zhang

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Shachi Deshpande , Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov

Application domains of Bayesian optimization include optimizing black-box functions or very complex functions. The functions we are interested in describe complex real-world systems applied in industrial settings. Even though they do have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Franz Brauße , Zurab Khasidashvili , Konstantin Korovin

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian machine learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Sebastian Bieringer , Sascha Diefenbacher , Gregor Kasieczka , Mathias Trabs

Bayesian Optimization using Gaussian Processes is a popular approach to deal with the optimization of expensive black-box functions. However, because of the a priori on the stationarity of the covariance matrix of classic Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-10 Ali Hebbal , Loic Brevault , Mathieu Balesdent , El-Ghazali Talbi , Nouredine Melab

We consider Bayesian optimization of objective functions of the form $\rho[ F(x, W) ]$, where $F$ is a black-box expensive-to-evaluate function and $\rho$ denotes either the VaR or CVaR risk measure, computed with respect to the randomness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-05 Sait Cakmak , Raul Astudillo , Peter Frazier , Enlu Zhou

Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-24 Rhiannon Michelmore , Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Luca Cardelli , Yarin Gal , Marta Kwiatkowska

We propose an algorithm for Bayesian functional optimisation - that is, finding the function to optimise a process - guided by experimenter beliefs and intuitions regarding the expected characteristics (length-scale, smoothness, cyclicity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Alistair Shilton , Sunil Gupta , Santu Rana , Svetha Venkatesh

Bayesian optimization has recently emerged as a popular and efficient tool for global optimization and hyperparameter tuning. Currently, the established Bayesian optimization practice requires a user-defined bounding box which is assumed to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-08-18 Bobak Shahriari , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Nando de Freitas