Related papers: Can one hear the shape of a target zone?
We propose a projection method to estimate risk-neutral moments from option prices. We derive a finite-sample bound implying that the projection estimator attains (up to a constant) the smallest pricing error within the span of traded…
This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous.…
The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the…
This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…
Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…
This research extends the conventional concepts of the bid--ask spread (BAS) and mid-price to include the total market order book bid--ask spread (TMOBBAS) and the global mid-price (GMP). Using high-frequency trading data, we investigate…
The condition for stationary increments, not scaling, detemines long time pair autocorrelations. An incorrect assumption of stationary increments generates spurious stylized facts, fat tails and a Hurst exponent H_s=1/2, when the increments…
The multi-terminal rate-distortion problem has been studied extensively. Notably, among these, Tung and Housewright have provided the best known inner and outer bounds for the rate region under certain distortion constraints. In this paper,…
This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…
Arguably the most important problem in quantitative finance is to understand the nature of stochastic processes that underlie market dynamics. One aspect of the solution to this problem involves determining characteristics of the…
We propose novel methods for change-point testing for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related risk measures in weakly dependent time series. We can detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of marginal…
This paper develops a Bayesian framework for the realized exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (realized EGARCH) model, which can incorporate multiple realized volatility measures for the modelling of a…
The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…
In this paper, we present a detailed framework to analyze the evolution of the random topology of a time-varying wireless network via the information theoretic notion of entropy rate. We consider a propagation channel varying over time with…
The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…
Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
The aim of this paper is to propose a heterogeneous agent model of stock markets that develop complicated endogenous price fluctuations. We find occurrences of non-stationary chaos, or speculative bubble, are caused by the heterogeneity of…
Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…
We empirically analyze the scaling properties of daily Foreign Exchange rates, Stock Market indices and Bond futures across different financial markets. We study the scaling behaviour of the time series by using a generalized Hurst exponent…