Related papers: A Time Delay Dynamical Model for Outbreak of 2019-…
The attack of novel avian influenza (H7N9) in east China caused a serious health crisis and public panic. In this paper, we empirically analyze the onset patterns of human cases of the novel avian influenza and observe several spatial and…
A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is applied in several countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We consider discrete-time SEIR epidemic model in a closed system which does not…
The COVID-19 outbreak was initially reported in Wuhan, China, and it has been declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 by WHO. It has now spread to over 180 countries, and it has gradually…
The COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused graving woes across the globe since first reported in the epicenter Wuhan, Hubei, China, December 2019. The spread of COVID-19 in China has been…
The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…
Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such…
This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…
Novel coronavirus-19 (2019-nCoV or COVID-19) is by far the most dangerous coronavirus ever identified for the third time in the three decades capable of infecting not only the animals but also the humans across the globe. Nearly 6000 deaths…
It is widely accepted that the number of reported cases during the first stages of the COVID-19 pandemic severely underestimates the number of actual cases. We leverage delay embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens and use Gaussian Process…
Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting…
The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…
We show that the occurrence of chaotic diffusion in a typical class of time-delayed systems with linear instantaneous and nonlinear delayed term can be well described by an anti-persistent random walk. We numerically investigate the…
In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…
By using the public data from Jan. 20 to Feb. 11, 2020, we perform data-driven analysis and forecasting on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, especially Hubei province. Our results show that the turning points of the daily infections…
The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves…
The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…
Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have…
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…
Time-limited states characterise many dynamical processes on networks: disease infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These…