Related papers: Kelly Betting with Quantum Payoff: a continuous va…

For sequential betting games, Kelly's theory, aimed at maximization of the logarithmic growth of one's account value, involves optimization of the so-called betting fraction $K$. In this Letter, we extend the classical formulation to allow…

Betting games provide a natural setting to capture how information yields strategic advantage. The Kelly criterion for betting, long a cornerstone of portfolio theory and information theory, admits an interpretation in the limit of…

A sequence of spin-1/2 particles polarised in one of two possible directions is presented to an experimenter, who can wager in a double-or-nothing game on the outcomes of measurements in freely chosen polarisation directions. Wealth is…

We develop a systematic approach to quantum probability as a theory of rational betting in quantum gambles. In these games of chance the agent is betting in advance on the outcomes of several (finitely many) incompatible measurements. One…

It is known that repeated gambling over the outcomes of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables gives rise to alternate operational meaning of entropies in the classical case in terms of the doubling rates. We give…

We study the problem of optimizing the betting frequency in a dynamic game setting using Kelly's celebrated expected logarithmic growth criterion as the performance metric. The game is defined by a sequence of bets with independent and…

We consider games of chance played by someone with external capital that cannot be applied to the game and determine how this affects risk-adjusted optimal betting. Specifically, we focus on Kelly optimization as a metric, optimizing the…

The original Kelly criterion provides a strategy to maximize the long-term growth of winnings in a sequence of simple Bernoulli bets with an edge, that is, when the expected return on each bet is positive. The objective of this work is to…

We investigate the problem of gambling with uncertainty in outcome probabilities. Stochastic optimization models are proposed for optimal investing on events with mutually exclusive outcomes when probabilities are estimated using…

In this paper, we consider a simple discrete-time optimal betting problem using the celebrated Kelly criterion, which calls for maximization of the expected logarithmic growth of wealth. While the classical Kelly betting problem can be…

This paper proposes a new way of evaluating the accuracy and validity of probabilistic forecasts that change over time (such as an in-game win probability model, or an election forecast). Under this approach, each model to be evaluated is…

We formulate an adaptive version of Kelly's horse model in which the gambler learns from past race results using Bayesian inference. A known asymptotic scaling for the difference between the growth rate of the gambler and the optimal growth…

I give an analysis of the simplest non-commutative quantum game, which is a gambling game much like Heads or Tails. The quantum gamespace displays strategies which are not interpretable through direct-product strategies of the two players.…

For a sequence of binary bets, the Kelly criterion provides a closed-form solution that maximizes the expected growth rate of wealth. In contrast, when multiple bets are placed simultaneously (e.g., in portfolio allocation or prediction…

Kelly's criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes the long term growth rate, but which is known to be risky. Here, we find optimal betting strategies that gives the highest capital growth rate while keeping a certain low value of risky…

We present a quantum approach to a signaling game; a special kind of extensive games of incomplete information. Our model is based on quantum schemes for games in strategic form where players perform unitary operators on their own qubits of…

This paper studies a two-person trading game in continuous time that generalizes Garivaltis (2018) to allow for stock prices that both jump and diffuse. Analogous to Bell and Cover (1988) in discrete time, the players start by choosing fair…

In this work we propose a quantum version of a generalized Monty Hall game, that is, one in which the parameters of the game are left free, and not fixed on its regular values. The developed quantum scheme is then used to study the expected…

Following a series of works on capital growth investment, we analyse log-optimal portfolios where the return evaluation includes `weights' of different outcomes. The results are twofold: (A) under certain conditions, the logarithmic growth…

The focal point of this paper is the so-called Kelly Criterion, a prescription for optimal resource allocation among a set of gambles which are repeated over time. The criterion calls for maximization of the expected value of the…